镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡，不锈钢：供应弹性现实与宏观预期博弈，钢价震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The nickel market is experiencing intensified long - short competition, with nickel prices fluctuating in a narrow range [1]. - The stainless - steel market is facing a game between the reality of supply elasticity and macro - expectations, resulting in steel price fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Data Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 121,850, up 780 from T - 1; the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 13,000, up 65 from T - 1. The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 96,611, up 8,771 from T - 1; the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract is 85,499, up 3,480 from T - 1 [2]. - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel is 121,350, up 50 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 919, up 1 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,050, unchanged from T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,440, up 40 from T - 1 [2]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff fight and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% nickel - iron with a single - line annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons [3]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, including improper wastewater management, air pollution, and the use of unlicensed tailing areas. The government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and will audit the entire park [3]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supply [4]. - The approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel - mining companies is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park has suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to reduce nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons per month [4][5]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets (RKAB) starting in October 2025 [5]. - Due to capacity limitations and a 5% annual production reduction target, a Shandong steel mill has started maintenance, suspending the delivery of long - term supply agreements signed in August [5]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral market sentiment [6].