国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250808

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamental data and relevant macro and industry news [4][6][10] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures closed at 793.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (-0.19%). The open - position decreased by 22,928 hands. Among spot prices, PB decreased by 3.0 yuan/ton, and others remained stable. Some basis and spreads changed slightly [6] - News: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month; imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore, down 1.3% month - on - month [6][7] - Trend Intensity: - 1 [7] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - Fundamentals: RB2510 closed at 3,231 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; HC2510 closed at 3,440 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. Open - positions decreased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. Basis and spreads changed [10] - News: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel decreased by 7.4%, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. Weekly data on August 7 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [11][12] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased, and the price of manganese ore increased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [14] - News: There were price changes in silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities changed [15][16] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both [16] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 increased. Some spot prices remained stable, while the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke to the factory increased. Basis and spreads changed [18] - News: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month [19] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both [20] Logs - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts had small changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and open - positions. Spot prices of most log types remained stable [22] - News: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24] - Trend Intensity: 0 [24]