Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil): Policy still has disturbances, with high-level fluctuations. The short - term trend is volatile, and the overall view is cautious, with a tendency towards a bearish outlook [3][4][5]. - Iron Ore: Industry fundamentals are weakening, and prices are likely to face pressure. The investment rating is to be cautiously bearish [7][8][9]. - Coke: Policy still has disturbances, with short - term high - level fluctuations. The investment rating is to be cautiously bullish [10][11][12]. - Coking Coal: Policy still has disturbances, with short - term high - level fluctuations. The investment rating is to be cautiously bullish [13][14][15]. - Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon): Market sentiment is volatile, and a cautious bearish approach is recommended [16][17][18]. Core Views Steel Products - Rebar: Supply - demand shows that hot metal production decreased slightly month - on - month, but the absolute level remains high. Rebar production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, and inventory increased. Construction steel trading is at a low level, still showing off - season characteristics. Market sentiment has cooled, and the market oscillates between strong expectations and weak reality, with a short - term volatile trend [4][5]. - Hot Rolled Coil: Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, inventory increased slightly, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. Export profits have declined significantly, and future exports may be affected. Market sentiment has generally cooled, but strong macro - expectations support the downside, with a short - term volatile trend [4][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, hot metal production decreased again, supply - side shipments decreased significantly, and arrivals increased. Port inventories increased, the fundamentals are moderately weak, and the anti - involution trading has ended. Under the dominance of fundamentals, ore prices are under pressure [8]. Coke - Coke spot prices have increased in five rounds. Coke enterprises' profit margins have improved marginally, but the absolute level is still limited, and production enthusiasm is average. Coke supply and demand are generally balanced, with relatively stable production and inventory. Recent news of coal production restrictions has boosted market sentiment again, leading to short - term high - level fluctuations [11]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply - demand, domestic coking coal production decreased significantly month - on - month, and inventory also decreased. Although hot metal production has decreased, the absolute level remains high, and raw material demand is relatively stable. The supply - demand margin has improved. Recent trading around anti - involution policies and news of production restrictions have boosted market expectations again, leading to short - term high - level fluctuations [14]. Ferroalloys - Manganese Silicon: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The operating rate has increased in some regions due to profit restoration. A new round of demand has been concentratedly released. The indicative steel mill's inquiry price for manganese silicon tender in August is 6000 yuan/ton (acceptance), a 150 - yuan increase from July, and the procurement volume is 16100 tons, a 1500 - ton increase from the previous round. Current port ore quotes are firm, providing strong short - term support for alloy prices. Market sentiment is volatile [17]. - Ferrosilicon: Fundamentals are weakening. Factory inventories continue to increase significantly, and delivery inventories are at a high level for the same period, with significant near - end warehouse receipt pressure. A new round of steel tenders has been launched, and most steel mills' tender volumes and prices have increased. The indicative steel mill's inquiry price for ferrosilicon tender in August is 5700 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase from last month, and the procurement volume is 2835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from the previous round [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Futures Prices: Rebar 01 is at 3304 with a decline of 5; Rebar 05 is at 3330 with a decline of 7; Rebar 10 is at 3231 with a decline of 3. Hot Rolled Coil 01 is at 3440 with a decline of 15; Hot Rolled Coil 05 is at 3449 with a decline of 11; Hot Rolled Coil 10 is at 3440 with a decline of 11 [2]. - Spot Prices: Tangshan billet is at 3090 with no change; Rebar in Tangshan is at 3240 with a 10 - yuan decline; Rebar in Shanghai is at 3360 with a 10 - yuan decline. Hot Rolled Coil in Tianjin is at 3400 with a 10 - yuan decline; Hot Rolled Coil in Shanghai is at 3460 with a 10 - yuan decline [2]. - Basis: Rebar 01: Shanghai is at 56 with a 5 - yuan decline; Rebar 05: Shanghai is at 30 with a 3 - yuan decline; Rebar 10: Shanghai is at 129 with a 7 - yuan decline. Hot Rolled Coil 01: Shanghai is at 20 with a 5 - yuan increase; Hot Rolled Coil 05: Shanghai is at 11 with a 1 - yuan increase; Hot Rolled Coil 10: Shanghai is at 20 with a 1 - yuan increase [2]. - Futures Spreads: RB 10 - 01 is at - 73 with a 2 - point increase; RB 01 - 05 is at - 26 with a 2 - point increase; RB 05 - 10 is at - 4. HC 10 - 01 is at 0 with a 4 - point increase; HC 01 - 05 is at - 9 with a 4 - point decrease; HC 05 - 10 is at 0 [2]. - Spot Spreads: Rebar: Shanghai - Tangshan is at 120 with no change; Rebar: Guangzhou - Tangshan is at 160 with a 10 - yuan increase. Hot Rolled Coil - Rebar: Shanghai is at 100 with no change; Hot Rolled Coil - Rebar: Guangzhou is at 70 with no change [2]. Iron Ore - Futures Prices: Iron Ore 01 is at 775 with a 3 - point decline; Iron Ore 05 is at 753 with a 2 - point decline; Iron Ore 09 is at 793 with a 2 - point decline [6]. - Spot Prices: PB powder is at 773 with a 3 - point decline; Yangdi powder is at 670 with no change; BRBF powder is at 812 [6]. - Spreads/Ratios: i01 - 05 is at 22 with a 2 - point increase; i05 - 09 is at - 41 with a 1 - point decrease; i09 - 01 is at 19 with a 2 - point decrease. RB01/i01 is at 4.27 with a 0.18 - point decrease; RB05/i05 is at 4.43 with no change; RB10/i09 is at 4.07 with no change [6]. - Basis: PB powder: 01 is at 50 with no change; PB powder: 05 is at 72 with a 1 - point decrease; PB powder: 09 is at 31 with a 2 - point decrease [6]. - Freight and Index: Brazil - Qingdao freight is at 24 with a 0.2 - point increase; West Australia - Qingdao freight is at 10 with a 0.5 - point increase. The Platts price index is at 101.2 with a 0.5 - point decrease; the Platts index converted to RMB price is at 844 with a 4 - point decrease [6]. Coke - Futures Market: Coke 1 - month contract 01 basis is at 1744.0 - 239 (previous value: 1732.5 - 249), with a 11.5 - 10.0 increase; Coke 5 - month contract is at 1823.5 (previous value: 1814.0), with a 9.5 - point increase; Coke 9 - month contract is at 1667.5 (previous value: 1644.5), with a 23.0 - point increase [10]. - Spot Quotes: Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke ex - factory price is at 1230 with no change; Rizhao Port first - grade metallurgical coke FOB price is at 1470 with no change; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke FOB price is at 1440 (previous value: 1420), with a 20 - point increase [10]. - Weekly Data: The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises is at 74.0% (previous value: 73.7%), with a 0.3 - percentage - point increase; 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal production is at 240.3 (previous value: 240.7), with a 0.4 - point decrease; sample coking plants' daily average coke production is at 65.1 (previous value: 64.8), with a 0.3 - point increase [10]. Coking Coal - Futures Market: Coking Coal 1 - month contract is at 1229.5 (previous value: 1221.0), with an 8.5 - point increase; 01 basis is at 51 (previous value: 59), with an 8.5 - point decrease; Coking Coal 5 - month contract is at 1265.0 (previous value: 1268.0), with a 3.0 - point decrease; 05 basis is at 15 (previous value: 12), with a 3.0 - point increase; Coking Coal 9 - month contract is at 1087.0 (previous value: 1074.0), with a 13.0 - point increase [13]. - Spot Quotes: Lvliang main coking coal (A<10.5, S<1%, G>75) is at 1480 with no change; Gujiao main coking coal (A<11, S<1.5%, G<65) is at 1300 with no change; Mongolian 5 clean coal self - pick - up price at Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is at 1150 with no change; Jingtang Port Australian main coking coal (A<9, S<0.4%, G>87) is at 1540 (previous value: 1520), with a 20 - point increase [13]. - Weekly Data: The operating rate of sample coal washing plants is at 61.5% (previous value: 62.3%), with a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease; sample coal washing plants' daily average clean coal production is at 52.1 with no change; sample coking plants' daily average coke production is at 52.0 (previous value: 51.8), with a 0.2 - point increase; 247 steel mills' daily average coke production is at 46.8 (previous value: 47.0), with a 0.2 - point decrease [13]. Ferroalloys - Futures Prices: Manganese Silicon 01 is at 6160 with a 34 - point decline; Manganese Silicon 05 is at 6202 with a 26 - point decline; Manganese Silicon 09 is at 6064 with a 32 - point decline. Ferrosilicon 01 is at 6012 with a 56 - point decline; Ferrosilicon 05 is at 6090 with a 44 - point decline; Ferrosilicon 09 is at 2834 with a 74 - point decline [16]. - Spot Prices: Silico - manganese 6517: Inner Mongolia is at 5820 with a 30 - point decline; Silico - manganese 6517: Ningxia is at 5800 with no change; Silico - manganese 6517: Guizhou is at 5850 with no change. Ferrosilicon 72: Inner Mongolia is at 5600 with no change; Ferrosilicon 72: Ningxia is at 5600 with no change; Ferrosilicon 72: Qinghai is at 5600 with a 50 - yuan increase [16]. - Basis: Manganese Silicon 01: Inner Mongolia is at - 40; Manganese Silicon 05: Inner Mongolia is at - 82 with a 4 - point decrease; Manganese Silicon 09: Inner Mongolia is at 56 with a 2 - point increase. Ferrosilicon 01: Ningxia is at - 62 with a 56 - point increase; Ferrosilicon 05: Ningxia is at - 140 with a 44 - point increase; Ferrosilicon 09: Ningxia is at 116 with a 74 - point increase [16]. - Spread Analysis: SM 09 - 01 is at - 96 with a 2 - point increase; SM 01 - 05 is at - 42 with an 8 - point decrease; SM 05 - 09 is at 138 with a 6 - point increase. SF 09 - 01 is at - 178 with an 18 - point decrease; SF 01 - 05 is at - 78 with a 12 - point decrease; SF 05 - 09 is at 256 with a 30 - point increase [16]. - Weekly Data: The operating rate of manganese silicon enterprises is at 43.43% (previous value: 42.18%), with a 1.25 - percentage - point increase; the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises is at 34.32% (previous value: 33.76%), with a 0.56 - percentage - point increase. The production of 187 manganese silicon enterprises is at 195825 tons (previous value: 190820 tons), with a 5005 - ton increase; the inventory of 63 manganese silicon enterprises is at 161500 tons (previous value: 164000 tons), with a 2500 - ton decrease. The production of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises is at 109100 tons (previous value: 104400 tons), with a 4700 - ton increase; the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises is at 71770 tons (previous value: 65590 tons), with a 6180 - ton increase [16].
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Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-08 02:02