商品期货早班车-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver usage is downward, so consider short - selling silver on rallies [1]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - level drives the price up. As of August 7th, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat. Future demand changes need to be tracked, and it is recommended to wait and see. For alumina, as of the 7th, the weekly inventory increased by 62,800 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. It is expected that the alumina price will remain volatile, and it is also recommended to wait and see [2]. - For zinc, supply pressure is significant, and consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rallies. For lead, with a pattern of weak supply and demand, it is recommended to wait and see mainly and wait for signals of inventory reduction or production cuts in recycled lead [2][4]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the price fluctuations of "anti - involution" related commodities. The demand side of the fundamentals has marginally improved, but the production plan in Xinjiang needs to be noted. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. For lithium carbonate, on the last working day before the expiration of Ningde's mining license, the futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly. If there are no substantial production cuts, the production cut expectation will be significantly reduced, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For polysilicon, policy news still affects the expectation, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 55,000 yuan [4]. - For steel products, the supply and demand of steel are relatively balanced, but there is obvious structural differentiation. Hold short positions in rebar 2510. For iron ore, the supply and demand are moderately strong, and it is recommended to wait and see. For coking coal, the supply and demand are relatively loose, and the futures valuation is high. It is also recommended to wait and see [5]. - For soybeans, the US soybeans are in a low - value range with weak expectations. The domestic soybeans have a large arrival volume in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand remains high. However, due to tariff policy disturbances, there is a domestic - foreign divergence, and it is recommended to follow the international cost side in the medium - term. For corn, affected by substitutes and the approaching of new grain listing, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For sugar, the increase in Brazilian production is gradually realized, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options. For cotton, it is recommended to buy on dips and trade within the range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton. For logs, the spot price is stable, and it is recommended to wait and see. For palm oil, it may enter a short - term shock, but it is still recommended to be long - allocated in the medium - term. For eggs, due to large supply pressure, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For live pigs, with strong supply and weak demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [6][7][8]. - For LLDPE, in the short - term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. For PVC, due to the expectation of production cuts, it is recommended to wait and see. For PTA, it is recommended to wait and see for PX, and in the short - term, look for positive arbitrage opportunities for PTA. In the long - term, there is still large supply pressure, and it is recommended to short the processing fee or short far - month contracts on rallies. For rubber, the cost provides support, and the expectation of inventory reduction is strengthened, but there is also an expectation of future supply increase. The market is expected to fluctuate widely. For glass, the downside space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. For PP, in the short - term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. For MEG, due to the low - inventory support in the near - term, it is recommended to wait and see. For crude oil, as the demand peak season is ending and supply pressure is increasing, it is recommended to short the SC main contract at around 520 yuan/barrel. For styrene, in the short - term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Performance: On Thursday, precious metals strengthened. The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 0.79% to $3,393 per ounce, and the international silver price denominated in London silver rose 1.2% to $38.289 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump plans to meet with Putin in the UAE. Fed officials' statements indicate that weak employment data is affecting the policy balance. Domestic gold ETF funds have re - flowed. There are changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions and exchanges, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF increased by 67.8 tons [1]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on gold; short - sell silver on rallies [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2509 contract increased by 0.92% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 20,750 yuan/ton. The LME price was $2,613 per ton. The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 0.93% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 3,241 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: For electrolytic aluminum, smelters maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly. It is the traditional consumption off - season, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreases slightly. For alumina, the operating capacity is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum smelters increases slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for both electrolytic aluminum and alumina [2]. Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the zinc 2508 contract increased by 0.87% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 22,550 yuan/ton. The social inventory on August 7th was 113,200 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from August 4th [2]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is significant. The zinc ingot production in August is expected to increase by 18,000 tons to 621,500 tons. The processing fee has jumped, and refinery profits stimulate production. The consumption off - season is obvious, and overseas factors form a tug - of - war [2][4]. - Trading Strategy: Short on rallies [4]. Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the lead 2508 contract increased by 0.18% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 16,825 yuan/ton. The social inventory on August 7th was 71,100 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from August 4th [4]. - Fundamentals: The pattern of weak supply and demand deepens. The supply of recycled lead is restricted by losses, and the production of primary lead increases slightly. The battery operating rate is stable, and some enterprises build inventories at low prices [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see mainly and wait for signals of inventory reduction or production cuts in recycled lead [4]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Thursday, the main 11 - contract fluctuated widely, closing at 8,655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position increased by 15,654 lots to 224,390 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 105 lots to 50,475 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the resumption of production in the southwest region contributed the main increase last week. Both social and warehouse - receipt inventories increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the operating rate of polysilicon increased, and the transaction price in the industry chain increased. The production of silicone increased slightly, and the price was stable. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season, and the operating rate was relatively stable [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main LC2511 contract closed at 72,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,680 yuan/ton, or 5.36%, due to supply - side production cut information [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 2,288 tons to 19,556 tons, a 13.25% increase. The import lithium concentrate index was $757 per ton. On the demand side, it was the peak season. The production of lithium iron phosphate in August increased by 7.1% to 311,400 tons, and the production of ternary materials increased by 3.1% to 70,800 tons. The inventory decreased due to supply reduction, and the sample inventory was 142,400 tons. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased to 16,443 lots after cancellation [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Thursday, the main 11 - contract opened low and fluctuated downward, closing at 50,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 2,072 lots to 136,324 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 60 lots to 3,580 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly production increased rapidly, and there is still an expectation of resumption of production due to the increase in warehouse - receipt volume. The industry inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in August met expectations, remaining basically the same as in July. The photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter is pessimistic, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in new photovoltaic installations in June. Some downstream products started to pass on price increases [4]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 55,000 yuan [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar fluctuated lower, closing at 3,215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Steel Union's data, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 74,000 tons to 2.11 million tons, and the production increased by 100,000 tons to 2.21 million tons. The supply and demand of building materials are neutral, and the inventory pressure is small due to low production. The demand for plates is stable, and the direct and indirect exports remain high, with the inventory continuously decreasing. The overall supply and demand of steel are relatively balanced, but there is obvious structural differentiation. The futures discount of steel remains low, and the valuation is slightly high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in rebar 2510, with the RB10 reference range of 3,180 - 3,250 yuan [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated sideways, closing at 790.5 yuan/ton, the same as the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Steel Union's data, the port inventory was 143 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons from last week. The pig iron production decreased by 4,000 tons to 2.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 86,000 tons. The supply and demand of iron ore are moderately strong. The fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the sixth round has not been proposed yet. The steel mill profits are narrowing marginally, and the future production will be stable. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The iron ore supply and demand are moderately strong on the margin, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation will be slower than the seasonal pattern due to the high base of pig iron demand. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure, but the absolute level is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation is neutral [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with the I09 reference range of 770 - 810 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2601 contract of coking coal fluctuated sideways, closing at 1,222.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Steel Union's data, the pig iron production decreased by 4,000 tons to 2.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 86,000 tons. The steel mill profits are narrowing marginally, and the future production will be stable. The fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there is no plan for a new increase. There is a differentiation in inventory at various supply - side links. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at relatively low levels in the same period of history, while the inventory at mine mouths, ports, and other links remains at a historical high. At the same time, the production and mine - mouth inventory decreased month - on - month. The overall supply and demand are still relatively loose, but the fundamentals are improving month - on - month. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the forward - premium structure remains. The futures valuation is high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with the JM01 reference range of 1,180 - 1,250 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, the CBOT soybean price rebounded from a low level [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, it is loose in the near - term and is also expected to be in large supply in the long - term. The good - quality rate of US soybeans is at a high level. On the demand side, South America dominates in the short - term, but the weekly US soybean exports are higher than expected [6]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are in a low - value range with weak expectations. The domestic soybeans have a large arrival volume in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand remains high. However, due to tariff policy disturbances, there is a domestic - foreign divergence. It is recommended to follow the international cost side in the medium - term. Pay attention to the weather in the production areas and tariff policies [6]. Corn - Market Performance: The 2509 contract of corn was weak, and the spot price of corn rose in North China and fell in Northeast China [6]. - Fundamentals: Wheat has high cost - effectiveness and substitutes for the feed demand of corn. The weak wheat price suppresses the corn price. The auction of imported grains increases the market supply, and the low transaction rate reflects weak market sentiment. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The easing of the trade situation increases the import expectation. The early - spring corn is about to be listed, and the cost of new - crop corn has decreased significantly, suppressing the long - term price expectation. The spot price of corn is expected to be weak [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Affected by substitutes and the approaching of new grain listing, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract was 297 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processed Brazilian sugar after tax with out - of - quota was 436 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: The double - week data of Brazil in July shows that the production has recovered, and the cumulative sugar - making ratio has reached a new high of 51.58%, with the double - week sugar - making ratio as high as 53.68%. The increasing production pressure in Brazil is gradually realized. The domestic macro - sentiment has cooled down. Recently, pay attention to the import volume in July. The coastal sales area quotes have decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to last week. The arrival of processed sugar is putting pressure on the spot price. In the future, the 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar will mainly fluctuate weakly, with the fluctuation range of [5,600 - 5,900] yuan/ton [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, the US cotton futures price fell, and the international crude oil price continued to weaken. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly, and the prices of domestic black - sector commodities rose again. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume of national textiles and clothing was $170.74 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the latest week's US cotton export sales data decreased month - on