国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and nickel prices fluctuate within a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The reality of supply elasticity and macro - expectations are in a game, and steel prices fluctuate [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The weekly output increase leads to inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to the fermentation of the mining license renewal event [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Inventory is being depleted, and market sentiment should be monitored [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of market information [2][14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,850 yuan, up 780 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,000 yuan, up 65 yuan from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, premiums and discounts, and spreads also showed corresponding changes [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Events include Canada's potential nickel export suspension, new nickel - iron project production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in Indonesian mining policies, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [5][6][7]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 71,920 yuan, up 2,660 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,300 yuan, up 2,680 yuan from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and basis also changed [10]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and the weekly output and inventory of lithium carbonate also changed. The weekly output was 19,556 tons, an increase of 2,288 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 142,418 tons, an increase of 692 tons from last week [11][12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,655 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the PS2511 contract was 50,110 yuan/ton, down 1,235 yuan from T - 1. There were also changes in data such as trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventories [14]. - Macro and Industry News: A Turkish photovoltaic company plans to invest $520 million to expand its solar - module manufacturing capacity [14][16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [16].