豆粕早报-20250808

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Beans and Meals: - Soybean Meal: Big - range oscillation ★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Big - range oscillation ★ [1] - Oils: - Palm Oil: Short - term consolidation ★ [1] - Agricultural Products: - Cotton: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] - Jujube: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] - Pork: Cautiously bullish ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Under the intertwined effects of weak fundamentals and the cost support of China - US trade tariffs, it shows a big - range oscillation. This week, there was a reduction in soybean meal inventory, and the环比 decline of the good - quality rate of US soybeans was bullish. However, there is a risk of a环比 increase in the per - unit yield of US soybeans in the August USDA report next week, so the market is cautious about going long. Pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [1][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Amid the intertwined long and short factors, it presents a big - range market. The recovery of global rapeseed production year - on - year, but there is a risk of a reduction in the per - unit yield of Canadian rapeseed in the new year. The reduction of rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. However, the improvement of the import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts pressure. Pay attention to the planting weather of Canadian rapeseed and the estimated per - unit yield data this month [1][7]. - Palm Oil: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea is to go long on dips. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July, which may suppress short - term prices. Pay attention to the final data around the 10th of this month [1][10]. - Cotton: The soil moisture in the main cotton - producing areas of the US continues to deteriorate slightly, and the improvement expectation of exports is limited. It is expected to be weak after a short - term rebound. In China, the actual sown area and per - unit yield of new cotton increase simultaneously, pushing up the guaranteed output. The commercial inventory is still being depleted rapidly, and the replenishment of downstream finished products slows down, providing short - term support. Downstream is gradually entering the stocking market, and the orders of textile enterprises have a slight rebound. It is advisable to be cautiously long on dips in the short term [1][14]. - Jujube: There are still differences in the market regarding the reduction range of production. At present, it is still doubtful whether there will be an over - expected reduction in production, and there is still speculation risk. The high - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height before the final production is determined. It is advisable to cautiously try long this week [1][17]. - Pork: The previous selling of second - fattened pigs and the acceleration of the short - term slaughter rhythm pushed down the pig price. However, considering the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs, it still drives some second - fattening speculation. The near - month contracts are weak but have certain support. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains at a high level, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises is expected to boost the far - month contracts. It is advisable to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy and the opportunity to establish long positions on dips [1][21]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - Inventory Data: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a环比 increase of 15.20 million tons; 125 oil - mill soybean inventories were 655.59 million tons, a环比 increase of 10.00 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a环比 decrease of 0.15 million tons. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal were 8.05 days, a环比 decrease of 0.14 days [3]. - Market Transactions: On August 5, the far - month basis trading volume soared, reaching a new high in nearly three years, mainly concentrated in the 10 - 1, 11 - 1, and 11 - 12 contracts [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Inventory Data: As of August 1, the coastal main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 11.6 million tons, a环比 decrease of 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 million tons, a环比 increase of 0.8 million tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country was 62.88 million tons, a环比 decrease of 3.66 million tons [7]. - Market Situation: Although June - August is the peak season for aquaculture, the substitution effect of soybean meal is enhanced, squeezing the market share of rapeseed meal. The reduction of rapeseed imports from August to October and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal support the price, but the improvement of the import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts pressure [7]. 3.3 Palm Oil - Inventory Data: As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil was 58.22 million tons, a环比 decrease of 3.33 million tons [9]. - Production Data: In July 2025, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 9.01% month - on - month to 1.84 billion tons. From August 1 - 5, 2025, the per - unit yield of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia decreased by 19.32% compared with the same period last month, and the palm oil production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month [9]. 3.4 Cotton - International Situation: The good - quality rate of US cotton this week remained at 55%, 10% higher than the same period. The non - drought rate in the US cotton - growing areas has gradually decreased to 80%. The newly sown area of cotton in India increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress was 24%, 2% higher than the same period. The new cotton harvest progress in Brazil has reached 16.7% [12]. - Domestic Situation: In China, the per - unit yield of new cotton is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to reach 7.4 billion tons or more. The commercial inventory has decreased to 215.71 million tons, 17.43 million tons lower than the same period. The orders of textile enterprises have a slight rebound, and the gold - nine - silver - ten stocking has gradually started [13]. 3.5 Jujube - Production Expectation: The new - season jujube is in the critical fruit - setting period. Some institutions estimate that the new - season production will decrease by 5 - 10% compared with 2022 and 20 - 25% compared with 2024, but other institutions give a conclusion of a 35 - 40% reduction, so the production expectation should be treated with caution [16]. - Inventory Situation: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9784 tons, a环比 decrease of 255 tons, higher than the same period by 4379 tons, and the depletion speed has significantly accelerated compared with the previous four weeks [16]. 3.6 Pork - Supply Situation: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August is 13.2257 billion heads, a环比 increase of 5.26%. The proportion of large - pig slaughter remains high, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening is also high. In the medium term, the number of newly born piglets from January to June 2025 continued to increase, and it is expected that the slaughter volume in the second half of the year will still have room for growth [20]. - Demand Situation: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has a phased weakening [20].