国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Weakening trend, hold 9 - 1 reverse spreads [5][12] - PTA: Weakening trend, consider long - short spreads at low levels, hold short positions on a single - side basis [5][12] - MEG: Long MEG and short PTA/PX [6][12] - Rubber: Sideways movement [13] - Synthetic rubber: Short - term sideways movement [17] - Asphalt: Weakening sideways movement [21] - LLDPE: Still under pressure [37] - PP: Spot prices down, average trading volume [41] - Caustic soda: Low valuation, take a long position on peak - season contracts [44] - Pulp: Sideways movement [49] - Glass: Stable original sheet prices [55] - Methanol: Under pressure and moving sideways [59] - Urea: Short - term under pressure and moving sideways [64] - Styrene: Take profit when squeezing profits [67] - Soda ash: Little change in the spot market [70] - LPG: Weak cost support [75] - Propylene: Short - term weak sideways movement [76] - PVC: Weakening sideways movement [90] - Fuel oil: Weakening again, mainly short - term sideways movement [92] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Continuing to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market keeps declining [92] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Hold short positions on the October contract as appropriate [94] - Short - fiber: Limited downside space, short - term sideways movement, long PF and short PR [32] - Bottle chips: Limited downside space, short - term sideways movement, long PF and short PR [32] - Offset printing paper: Sideways movement at a low level, lack of upward momentum [34] - Pure benzene: Weakening sideways movement [35] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities. For example, some products are under pressure due to increased supply or weak demand, while others may have potential upward momentum due to cost support or expected policy changes [12][38][62] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply - demand pressure increases, prices follow the decline of upstream crude oil and naphtha. PTA device out - of - plan maintenance may lead to weaker demand for PX. Hold 9 - 1 reverse spreads [8][12] - PTA: Spot supply is sufficient, basis weakens. Low processing fees may lead to out - of - plan changes in PTA's operating load. Consider long - short spreads at low levels, hold short positions on a single - side basis [9][12] - MEG: Overseas multiple devices have maintenance plans, imports in September may decline. Long MEG and short PTA, pay attention to the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions during the main contract roll - over [12] Rubber - The futures market shows an increase in trading volume and positions. The spot market has little change in prices. The raw material prices in Thailand decline, while those in Yunnan are firm, and the supply in Hainan gradually recovers. The overall trend is sideways [14][16] Synthetic rubber - The futures market has changes in trading volume, positions, and prices. The spot market shows price fluctuations in various products. The inventory of sample enterprises increases slightly, and the port inventory of butadiene rises. The short - term trend is sideways [17][18] Asphalt - The futures market has price changes and trading volume fluctuations. The spot market shows price increases in some regions and a decline in refinery operating rates. The overall trend is weakening sideways [22][36] LLDPE - The spot market has narrow price fluctuations. Macro data is bearish, cost support weakens. Supply pressure increases in the third quarter, but the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical in September may relieve the supply pressure in the East China region. The trend is still under pressure [37][38] PP - The spot market has partial price declines, and trading volume is average. The futures market has little guidance on the spot market. The short - term trend is neutral [41][42] Caustic soda - The current price decline is due to high enterprise operating rates, off - season demand, and price competition in exports. The 09 - contract valuation is at a low level, and the cost support is strong. The downstream peak - season restocking may drive the price upward. Take a long position on peak - season contracts [46] Pulp - The futures market has price increases and a decline in trading volume and positions. The spot market shows price declines in various pulp types. The price is affected by factors such as futures decline, weak demand, and supply pressure. The overall trend is sideways [50][53] Glass - The futures market has price declines and a decrease in trading volume and positions. The spot market shows stable to slightly weak prices, and short - term sales are under pressure. The trend is neutral [56] Methanol - The futures market has price declines and a decrease in positions. The spot market shows price declines in ports and increases in some inland areas. The short - term trend is affected by factors such as fund outflows and basis strengthening, and the medium - term trend is sideways [60][62] Urea - The futures market has price declines and a decrease in trading volume and positions. The spot market shows price fluctuations in some regions. The daily production and operating rate increase, and the enterprise inventory decreases. The short - term trend is under pressure, and the medium - term trend is sideways [64][66] Styrene - The pure benzene supply and demand increase, while the styrene supply increases and demand decreases. The styrene port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation phase. Focus on squeezing the profit of styrene. Take profit when squeezing profits [67][68] Soda ash - The futures market has price declines and a decrease in positions. The spot market shows little change, with weak and stable prices and average trading volume. The trend is neutral [72] LPG, Propylene - LPG: The futures market has price declines and changes in trading volume and positions. The cost support is weak. Pay attention to the changes in relevant indicators such as PDH operating rate [76] - Propylene: The short - term trend is weak sideways movement [76] PVC - The spot market has firm prices, but the trading atmosphere is dull. The industry profit expands, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change. The market may short the chlor - alkali profit. The trend is weakening sideways [89][90] Fuel oil, Low - sulfur fuel oil - Fuel oil: The futures market has price changes and trading volume fluctuations. The price weakens again, and the short - term trend is sideways [92] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Continuing to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market keeps declining [92] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The futures market has price changes and trading volume fluctuations. The freight rates of relevant routes decline. Hold short positions on the October contract as appropriate [94]