铅锌日评：区间整理-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro factors show some fluctuations, and fundamentally, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season. LME zinc inventory decline overseas provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range with limited downside [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - Lead: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.12%; Shanghai lead basis was - 125 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; LME3 - month lead futures closed at 2,007 dollars/ton, up 0.50%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.41, down 0.38% [1]. - Zinc: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,440 yuan/ton, up 0.81%; Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,580 yuan/ton, up 0.89%; Shanghai zinc basis was - 140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; LME3 - month zinc futures closed at 2,815.5 dollars/ton, up 0.73%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.02, up 0.16% [1]. 3.2 Production and Supply Information - Recycled Non - ferrous Metals: The production of recycled copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc in China reached 1.915 billion tons, including 445 million tons of recycled copper and 1.055 billion tons of recycled aluminum. Recycled lithium salts and cobalt from waste new - energy batteries accounted for 10% and 14% of China's metal lithium salts and cobalt production respectively, and recycled rare - earth production accounted for 15% of China's rare - earth supply [1]. - Zinc and Lead Mines: Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, up 25% year - on - year; lead concentrate production was 6,000 tons, up 22% year - on - year. A zinc smelter in North China postponed its planned maintenance in September and October [1]. 3.3 Market Fundamentals - Lead: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is relatively stable. For recycled lead, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and some refineries have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion. Demand is expected to enter the peak season, but enterprises paused purchasing this week for inventory checks [1]. - Zinc: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Production is increasing, but demand is in the off - season, and enterprises' operating rates have declined [1].