国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental analysis for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own unique market situation and influencing factors, such as macro - economic news, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [2][11][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Non - farm payroll data weakened, and the price showed certain strength. The trend intensity is 1. For example, Comex gold 2510 had a 1.48% daily increase [2][6]. - Silver: There was a slight rebound, with a trend intensity of 1. Comex silver 2510 rose 1.57% [2][6]. Base Metals - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supported the price. The trend intensity is 0. China's un - wrought copper and copper products imports in July increased compared to the same period last year [11][13]. - Zinc: It showed range - bound fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0. LME zinc inventory decreased [14]. - Lead: The increase in LME cancelled warrants supported the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [17]. - Tin: It was in range - bound fluctuations, with a trend intensity of - 1 [19][20]. - Aluminum: The price was under pressure. The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0. The LME aluminum cash - 3M spread and other indicators changed [25][26]. - Nickel: The multi - empty game intensified, and the nickel price had narrow - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [27]. - Stainless Steel: There was a game between the reality of supply elasticity and macro - expectations, and the steel price fluctuated, with a trend intensity of 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The weekly production increase led to inventory accumulation. The trend intensity is 1. The weekly production increased by 2288 tons, and the industry inventory increased by 692 tons [33][35]. - Industrial Silicon: The inventory was being reduced, and market sentiment should be monitored. The trend intensity is 0 [37]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of market information, with a trend intensity of 1 [37]. - Iron Ore: It showed repeated fluctuations, with a trend intensity of - 1. China's iron ore imports in July decreased compared to the previous month [41][42]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They showed relatively strong fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [44][45]. - Log: It showed repeated fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [48]. - Para - Xylene: Supply - demand pressure increased, and the trend was weak, with a trend intensity of - 1 [54]. - PTA: The processing fee was at a low level, and attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts, with a trend intensity of - 1 [54]. - MEG: Go long on MEG and short on PTA/PX, with a trend intensity of 0 [54]. - Rubber: It was in range - bound operation, with a trend intensity of 0 [62]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Due to repeated macro - sentiment, it is advisable to go long at low levels [4]. - Soybean Oil: It was in high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [4]. - Soybean Meal: Exports were good, and the US soybean price rose, so the Dalian soybean meal might follow the rebound [4]. - Corn: It was in a weak operation [4]. - Sugar: It was in a volatile period [4]. - Cotton: It had narrow - range fluctuations [4]. - Egg: There was a rebound sentiment in the spot market [4]. - Live Pig: The transaction was poor, and the reverse spread should be maintained [4]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [4].