国泰君安期货所长早读-20250808

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - Trump and Putin may meet soon, which reduces the possibility of Trump imposing additional tariffs on Russia, and there is a glimmer of hope for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, but a quick cease - fire is not expected [8]. - For polysilicon, it is still in a policy - driven market. Short - term trading logic is more related to policy information, with a general strategy of buying on dips. There may be opportunities for inter - month reverse arbitrage, and investors are advised to control risks [9][10]. - For caustic soda, the valuation is at a low level. The peak - season contracts should be treated bullishly. Although it is currently in a weak situation, the cost support is strong, and the peak - season demand is expected to drive the price up [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pre - market Highlights - Polysilicon: Still in a policy - driven market, short - term price affected by acquisition policy progress. Upstream inventory increased, prices in the industrial chain are not smoothly transmitted. Focus on policy - related sentiment disturbances, with a long - buying strategy on dips and potential inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [9][10]. - Caustic Soda: Valuation is low. Current decline is due to high production, off - season demand, and export price negotiation. Cost support is strong, and peak - season demand, especially from alumina production in Guangxi, is expected to drive up the price. Do not short at the current low valuation [11]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals: Gold is affected by weak non - farm payrolls data, and silver shows a slight rebound. The trends of both are relatively mild [15][19]. - Base Metals: - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supports the price. There are various macro and industry news, such as Trump's administrative order and trade - related issues. The trend strength is neutral [15][24]. - Zinc: Ranges within a certain interval. The trend strength is neutral [15][27]. - Lead: The increase in LME cancelled warrants supports the price. The trend strength is neutral [15][30]. - Tin: Ranges within a certain interval. The trend strength is slightly bearish [15][33]. - Aluminum: The price is under pressure. Alumina oscillates downward, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of all are neutral [15][38]. - Nickel: The multi - and short - side game intensifies, and the price oscillates narrowly. The trend strength is neutral [15][40]. - Stainless Steel: The supply elasticity and macro expectations are in a game, and the price oscillates. The trend strength is neutral [15][41]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Carbonate Lithium: The weekly production increase leads to inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the fermentation of the mining license renewal event. The trend strength is slightly bullish [15][46]. - Industrial Silicon: Inventory is being depleted. Attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend strength is neutral [15][50]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of market information. The trend strength is slightly bullish [15][50]. - Iron Ore: Oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is slightly bearish [15][53]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Both show a relatively strong oscillation trend. The trend strengths are neutral [15][56]. - Log: Oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is neutral [15][60]. - Para - Xylene: Supply - demand pressure increases, and the trend is weak. The trend strength is slightly bearish [15][66]. - PTA: The processing fee is at a low level. Attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts. The trend strength is slightly bearish [15][66]. - MEG: A strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA/PX is recommended. The trend strength is neutral [15][66]. - Agricultural Products: - Palm Oil: Due to repeated macro - market sentiment, a strategy of going long at low levels is recommended [15][17]. - Soybean Oil: Oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [15][17]. - Soybean Meal: Exports are good, and US soybeans have risen. Dalian soybean meal may follow the upward trend [15][17]. - Corn: Runs weakly [15][17]. - Sugar: Is in an oscillation period [15][17]. - Cotton: Oscillates narrowly [15][17]. - Egg: The spot price shows a rebound sentiment [15][17]. - Live Pig: The trading volume is poor, and a reverse arbitrage strategy is maintained [15][17]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [15][17].