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LPG:成本支撑偏弱,丙烯:短期弱势震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-08 02:28

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG has weak cost support [1]. - Propylene shows short - term weak and volatile trends [2]. - The trend intensity of LPG and propylene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: PG2509 closed at 3,823 yesterday with a - 0.83% daily increase and 3,825 at night with a 0.05% increase; PG2510 closed at 4,291 yesterday with a - 0.58% daily increase and 4,296 at night with a 0.12% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,480 yesterday with a - 0.22% daily increase and 6,463 at night with a - 0.26% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,525 yesterday with a - 0.40% daily increase and 6,525 at night with a 0.00% increase [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: For PG2509, the trading volume was 75,511 yesterday, a decrease of 8,218 from the previous day, and the open interest was 105,762, an increase of 2,838; for PG2510, the trading volume was 27,905 yesterday, a decrease of 7,248, and the open interest was 87,463, an increase of 2,060; for PL2601, the trading volume was 1,118 yesterday, a decrease of 804, and the open interest was 4,534, an increase of 108 [2]. - Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 527 (previous day: 495); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 517 (previous day: 485); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 205 (previous day: - 234); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 155 (previous day: - 194); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 155 (previous day: - 219) [2]. - Industrial Chain Data: The PDH operating rate was 73.8% this week (last week: 72.6%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.6% this week (last week: 67.8%); the alkylation operating rate was 50.0% this week (last week: 48.8%) [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations: On August 6, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectations were propane at 526 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton from the previous trading day) and butane at 496 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton); the October Saudi CP expectations were propane at 541 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton) and butane at 511 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton) [11]. - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date, and Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. starting maintenance in late November 2023, also with an undetermined end - date [12]. - Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Many production enterprises have device maintenance plans, like Shengli Heavy Oil Plant in Shandong having a full - plant maintenance from June 16, 2025, to mid - August 2025, with a normal production volume of 400 and a loss volume of 400 [13].