商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Non-farm payroll data weakened [2] - Silver: Made a slight rebound [2] - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supported the price [2] - Zinc: Traded in a range [2] - Lead: The increase in LME cancelled warrants supported the price [2] - Tin: Traded in a range [2] - Aluminum: Prices were under pressure [2] - Alumina: Oscillated and declined [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: The tug - of - war between bulls and bears intensified, and nickel prices oscillated narrowly [2] - Stainless steel: The reality of supply elasticity and macro - expectations were in a game, and steel prices oscillated [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamentals: For gold, prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all rose, with daily increases of 0.17%, 0.36%, and 1.48% respectively. For silver, prices of Shanghai Silver 2510, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2510 also increased, with daily increases of 0.84%, 0.84%, and 1.57% respectively. ETF holdings and inventories showed certain changes. For example, SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 6, and Comex Gold inventories decreased by 121,016 (in ounces) [5]. - Trend Intensity: Gold and silver both had a trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively weak bullish trend [8]. Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,460, with a daily increase of 0.23%. LME copper 3M electronic trading price decreased slightly. Trading volumes and open interests of both Shanghai and LME copper decreased. Copper inventories in Shanghai and LME also declined, and the cancellation warrant ratio of LME copper increased slightly [10]. - Macroeconomic and Industry News: Trump signed an executive order allowing 401K accounts to invest in cryptocurrencies and private funds. Chile's Codelco suspended the operation of the El Teniente copper mine. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in July 2025 increased [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: Copper had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,580, with a daily increase of 0.89%. The LME zinc 3M electronic trading price increased by 1.64%. Trading volumes and open interests of both Shanghai and LME zinc increased. Inventories of Shanghai and LME zinc decreased [13]. - News: Fed Governor Waller was regarded as one of the top candidates for the next Fed Chair by the Trump team [14]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,875, with a daily increase of 0.12%. The LME lead 3M electronic trading price increased by 1.09%. Trading volumes of Shanghai lead decreased, while those of LME lead increased. LME lead cancelled warrants increased by 6,275 tons [16]. - News: Trump signed an executive order allowing 401K accounts to invest in alternative investments. Modi responded strongly to a 50% tariff [16]. - Trend Intensity: Lead had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 267,940, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The LME tin 3M electronic trading price increased by 1.82%. Shanghai tin inventories decreased by 26 tons, and LME tin inventories increased by 15 tons [19]. - Macroeconomic and Industry News: Trump nominated Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The US weekly continuing jobless claims reached the highest level since the end of 2021. China's exports and imports in July increased, and its foreign exchange reserves decreased [19]. - Trend Intensity: Tin had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish trend [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: The price of electrolytic aluminum was under pressure, alumina oscillated and declined, and cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum. For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,750. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,211. For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 20,135 [24]. - News: The 39% US tariff on Swiss products took effect, and the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points [26]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,850, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,000. Prices of various nickel - related products and stainless - steel products showed certain changes [28]. - Macroeconomic and Industry News: Canada's Ontario Province might stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [28][29]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel and stainless steel both had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [32].