SH周报：宏观情绪退坡近端烧碱现货崩塌-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The upside space for caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2800 price level. The supply of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak, and inventory has increased. The price of caustic soda has been falling due to weak demand in the Shandong region and a downward adjustment in the purchase price of alumina, the main downstream product. [3][6] - For different market participants, corresponding option trading strategies are recommended to manage inventory and procurement risks. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications, including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has been adjusted downward, with poor trading for high - concentration caustic soda. [11] - The report provides price data for different regions and specifications of caustic soda, including 32 - alkali in Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan; 50 - alkali in Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan; and 99 - flake caustic soda in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. [12][20][27] 2. Spread 2.1 Model Spread - The report shows the price spreads between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99 - flake caustic soda and 32 - alkali in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong. [37] 2.2 Regional Spread - It presents the regional price spreads of 32 - alkali (Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong, Jiangsu - Shandong), 50 - alkali (Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong), and 99 - flake caustic soda (Shandong - Shaanxi, Shandong - Inner Mongolia). [37] 3. Supply 3.1 Load and Output - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. This week, the domestic caustic soda production is expected to be 828,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,600 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04%. [55] 3.2 Maintenance Situation - Many enterprises' chlor - alkali plants have completed maintenance or are in the process of maintenance. This week, the impact of maintenance on production is smaller than last week. The report lists the maintenance situations of multiple chlor - alkali plants, including those in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Hubei, and Gansu. [55][60] 3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operation - The report details the operation status of flake caustic soda plants of various manufacturers, including normal operation, reduced load, and maintenance. [64] 4. Downstream Demand 4.1 Alumina - This week, the supply of alumina has changed little. The supply - demand imbalance in different regions still exists. As of August 7, the installed capacity of alumina in China is 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity is 94.4 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.23%. [67] 4.2 Viscose Staple Fiber - From August 1 to August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 84.97%, the same as last week, and the domestic viscose plants are operating stably. [67] 4.3 Printing and Dyeing Industry - As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in the Yangtze River region is 69.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The market demand is still weak, and it is expected that the demand will gradually pick up after mid - September. [67] 5. Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda plants is 376,930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%, and the inventory of flake caustic soda plants is 23,555 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.65%. [80] 6. Valuation 6.1 Cost - The cost of caustic soda production mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. This week, the domestic industrial salt market has declined slightly, and the domestic thermal coal market price has risen. [84] 6.2 Profit - This week, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market has been compressed, with a slight increase in the cost side and a weakening of the liquid caustic soda market price. [85] 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provides data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, and the production profits of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, etc. [97]