光大期货能化商品日报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weakly bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Weakly bearish [2] - Asphalt: Sideways [2] - Polyester: Weakly bearish [4] - Rubber: Sideways [4] - Methanol: Sideways [6] - Polyolefins: Sideways [6] - Polyvinyl chloride: Weakly bearish [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices have been declining for six consecutive days. The upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders and the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with weak fundamentals, keep oil prices under pressure [1]. - Fuel oil supply remains sufficient in August, demand may weaken, and the overall fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined. Short - term attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [2]. - The asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory in the short term, but the risk lies in crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - Polyester prices are under pressure due to the further decline in oil prices at the cost end, and the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol is expected to shift to inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market has sufficient supply and stable demand, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - Methanol is expected to maintain a sideways trend with inventory accumulation in August but a relatively low overall inventory level [6]. - The supply and demand of polyolefins will recover in August, with limited upside space in the absence of a significant increase in the cost end [6]. - The fundamental pressure of PVC has eased in August, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude oil: On Thursday, WTI September contract closed at $63.88/barrel, down $0.47 or 0.73%; Brent October contract closed at $66.43/barrel, down $0.46 or 0.69%; SC2509 closed at 497.1 yuan/barrel, down 7.2 yuan or 1.43%. US crude exports in July dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years, about 310 barrels per day. The market is concerned about the US - Russia leaders' meeting, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict remains uncertain. Fundamentally, oil prices lack support and are under pressure [1]. - Fuel oil: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2509 rose 0.6% to 2835 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2510 rose 0.31% to 3550 yuan/ton. As of August 6, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 165.1 barrels (6.69%) week - on - week, and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventory increased by 172 barrels (21.67%) week - on - week. In August, supply is sufficient, demand may weaken, and the fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined [2]. - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt BU2509 rose 0.17% to 3529 yuan/ton. In August, some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans, supply is expected to decrease, and demand in the south is expected to improve. The short - term asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, but the risk lies in crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - Polyester: TA509 closed at 4724 yuan/ton, up 0.9%; EG2509 closed at 4414 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The cost - end oil price is under pressure, and the downstream demand has resilience. Ethylene glycol supply has recovered well, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [4]. - Rubber: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber RU2509 rose 30 yuan/ton to 15525 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12350 yuan/ton. The weather in rubber - producing areas is good, downstream demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - Methanol: In August, inventory accumulation is expected, but the increase in imports is not large, and the overall inventory level is relatively low. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a sideways trend [6]. - Polyolefins: In August, both supply and demand will recover, inventory will gradually shift from society to downstream, and the upside space is limited without a significant increase in the cost end [6]. - Polyvinyl chloride: In August, the fundamental pressure of PVC has eased, inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on August 8, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is closely monitoring market dynamics, supply and demand, and is concerned about US President Trump's recent remarks. He expects oil prices to be below $72 per barrel. The CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said that Kuwait's quota production is 2.548 million barrels per day [9]. - US crude exports in July dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years due to insufficient domestic supply, which increased the price of WTI futures relative to Brent crude and damaged overseas demand [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [11][13][15] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Line charts of the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products are provided, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [39][41][44] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: Line charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products are shown, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [56][59][61] - 4.5 Production Profits: Line charts of the production profits of various energy - chemical products are presented, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [65][67][68] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experience [70][71][72]