锌锭累库幅度有提速趋势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6] Core View - The accumulation of zinc ingot inventories is accelerating. The zinc price is under significant pressure due to the supply pressure and the current consumption off - season. [1][5] Summary by Directory Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$9.79 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,510 yuan per ton, with a premium of -35 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,470 yuan per ton, with a premium of -75 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,500 yuan per ton, with a premium of -45 yuan per ton [2]. - Futures: On August 7, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,480 yuan per ton and closed at 22,580 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 131,099 lots, and the open interest was 96,819 lots. The highest price was 22,630 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,420 yuan per ton [3]. - Inventory: As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 113,200 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 84,950 tons, a decrease of 4,275 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - Supply: In July, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 25%. The supply pressure is continuously increasing [5]. - Cost: There is no interference in the overseas mining end, and the domestic ore TC has increased by 100 yuan per ton, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm [5]. - Consumption: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The inventory accumulation speed is accelerating, and the accumulation trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6]