沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad is oscillating upwards. It is expected that the Shanghai copper price will remain volatile. Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,460, up 180 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,710 lots, a decrease of 13,679 lots; the open interest was 157,601 lots, a decrease of 973 lots; and the inventory was 20,145 tons, a decrease of 201 tons [2]. - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,500, up 150 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 40, a decrease of 30 [2]. - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,670.5, down 3.5 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 156,000 tons [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.414, up 0.03 from the previous day; the total inventory was 263,296 tons, an increase of 1,106 tons [2]. Industry News - Benefiting from good terminal orders, the operating rate of the copper foil industry is on the rise. In July 2025, the overall operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 2.50 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.00 percentage points. SMM expects the overall operating rate of the copper foil industry in August 2025 to reach 78.24% [2]. - On August 5, the environmental assessment approval of the project of Anhui Zhongzui Copper Co., Ltd. with an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of copper strip blanks and tool steel was publicly announced [2]. - Indonesia's PT Cresik smelter entered maintenance due to oxygen supply equipment failure, with a maintenance period of 2 - 4 weeks. The annual output of this smelter is about 300,000 tons, and the estimated impact on production is about 20,000 tons [2]. Industry Operating Rate and Inventory - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared to last week. The operating rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) has increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has increased. The raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory has decreased; the order volume (operating rate) of China's copper enameled wires has increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased [3]. - The operating rate (production volume) of China's copper strip production capacity has increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased; the operating rate of China's copper tube production capacity has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have remained flat [3]. - The operating rate of China's brass rod production capacity has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased [3]. Investment Strategy - Due to the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off - season, the operating rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises in August may decline month - on - month. Specifically, the operating rates of electrolytic copper rods, copper strips, copper foils, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while those of recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decline month - on - month [3]. - Domestic electrolytic copper holders are not eager to sell at low prices, and downstream demand is weak, with mainly rigid - demand purchases [3].