Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 10 - contract down 0.82%. The geopolitical risk premium has significantly diminished, and the post - peak season outlook for crude oil supply and demand remains relatively loose. The oil market may shift to a weaker trend dominated by a pessimistic supply - demand situation [2] Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with a slight upward bias. The official implementation and intensification of US reciprocal tariffs, concerns about the US economic outlook, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed international gold prices to test the important resistance at the upper end of the three - month trading range. Maintain a strategy of buying on dips and be cautious at high levels [3] Copper - Overnight, copper prices declined. The market's reaction to the new round of US tariffs was "mild", and it is mainly tracking macro - economic indicators. Hold previous short positions [4] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. The apparent consumption has fallen during the off - season, but the production of aluminum rods has increased month - on - month. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the industry's profit is poor. In the medium term, it has certain resilience relative to aluminum prices. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities with AL [6] Alumina - Recently, the operating capacity of alumina has reached a historical high, and the industry's total inventory has increased. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downside space is also relatively limited [7] Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The fundamentals are strong overseas and weak domestically. The zinc spot import loss has widened. The Shanghai zinc market has rebounded, and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [8] Lead - The supply of lead ingots has significant regional differences. The inventory of lead has decreased slightly. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton in the short term. Consider short - term long positions on dips [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded. The upstream price support has significantly weakened. The overall inventory level is still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound. Actively enter short positions [10] Tin - Overnight, tin prices fluctuated and closed higher. It is expected to be in a volatile market. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate has rebounded with heavy trading volume. The total market inventory has slightly declined. After the rebound, the trading value has decreased. Look for high - level short - selling positions [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher. The supply pressure remains, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the support at 8,500 yuan/ton [13] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures closed slightly lower. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton for the PS2511 contract [14] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The supply is expected to increase seasonally in August, and the demand is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of policy - based production restrictions [16] Coke - The coking industry's profit has improved, and the inventory has continued to decline slightly. The coke price is expected to rise in the short term, but the volatility remains high [17] Coking Coal - The total inventory of coking coal has decreased month - on - month. The coking coal price is significantly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The downside space is relatively small, and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [18] Manganese Silicon - The demand for manganese silicon remains at a high level, and the production rate increase is lower than expected. The price is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [19] Silicon Iron - The overall demand for silicon iron is acceptable, and the inventory has slightly increased. It follows the trend of manganese silicon, and pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [20] Group 2: Building Materials and Chemicals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices declined. The supply - demand contradiction in the spot market is not significant, and the "anti - involution" theme dominates the market trend. Pay attention to the overall trend of the commodity market [15] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil futures are following the downward trend of SC. The low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure in the short term, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price spread continues to narrow [22] Asphalt - The August production plan has decreased compared to July. The asphalt market is under pressure, and the supply increase space is currently neutral. Pay attention to the actual production release of major refineries [23] Urea - The urea market has declined after the policy became clear. The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market focus is on changes in export policies [24] Methanol - The coastal olefin plants' overall operating rate is not high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [25] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene futures price is weak. The market pressure is expected to ease, and there is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter. Consider month - spread band trading [26] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to increased supply and weak demand. Caustic soda is expected to face high - level pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and strong supply [27] PX and PTA - Affected by the weak oil price, PX and PTA prices have declined. The PTA industry's operating rate is expected to decrease, and pay attention to the possibility of PTA valuation repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has declined due to port inventory pressure. The supply - demand situation has real - world pressure, and overseas plant disruptions have weakened [29] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin - The short - fiber price has followed the raw material price decline. Consider long positions in the medium term. The bottle - grade resin has low processing margins, and capacity over - supply is a long - term pressure [30] Glass - The glass industry's inventory has increased, and the futures price is weak. The market has returned to real - world trading. Pay attention to the market sentiment and processing orders [31] Natural Rubber and Related Products - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is slowly weakening. The inventory has declined. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [32] Soda Ash - Soda ash is in a weak position. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand from the photovoltaic industry is weak. The futures price is under high - level pressure but is not expected to break the previous low [33] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade tariffs, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has increased. The soybean meal inventory has reached a record high this year. The US soybean is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the soybean meal market is expected to be volatile before the tariff issue is clarified [34] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The price of domestic soybean oil has fluctuated significantly. The market is waiting for the guidance of the US biomass diesel policy. Maintain a strategy of long - position allocation on dips for soybean oil and palm oil, and pay attention to market sentiment fluctuations in the medium term [35] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The weather risk for Canadian rapeseed is decreasing, and the domestic rapeseed price is expected to be slightly stronger than the international market. Rapeseed meal may fluctuate weakly, and pay attention to the import prospects of rapeseed [36] Soybean No. 1 - The price of Soybean No. 1 has rebounded from a low level. Pay attention to the weather in domestic soybean - producing areas and policy guidance [37] Corn - The corn futures in Dalian are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom. The new - season corn has a high probability of a bumper harvest, and pay attention to the phased supply in the circulation link [38] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has continued to decline, hitting a new low this year. The futures price of live pigs in the near - term is not optimistic, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity reduction in the long - term [39] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable with a weak trend. The futures market suggests a reverse - spread strategy. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, while the off - season contracts in the second half of this year will be relatively weak [40] Cotton - The US cotton has declined, and the Brazilian cotton export has decreased. The Zhengzhou cotton has stabilized. The new - season Xinjiang cotton has a strong expectation of increased production. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [41] Pulp - The pulp futures have risen slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is still weak. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [42] Group 4: Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market index futures closed down. The domestic equity market's capital sentiment is generally positive in the medium term. Maintain an increased allocation of technology - growth and low - level consumer sectors [43] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures are oscillating. Short - term multi - variety hedging should focus on the entry timing of curve steepening [44]
综合晨报-20250808
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-08 03:21