聚烯烃日报：库存累积，聚烯烃走势偏弱-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical plants has led to continuous release of new production capacity, resulting in significant future supply - side pressure. The current maintenance season has temporarily offset the pressure of new capacity expansion. The propane price is weak, and the cost - side support is weak. The downstream demand for polyolefins remains in the seasonal off - season, with weak demand. The inventory of polyolefins in the middle and upper reaches is slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher year - on - year, and the short - term fundamentals remain weak [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: L main contract closed at 7,297 yuan/ton (- 24), PP main contract at 7,075 yuan/ton (- 3). LL North China spot was 7,210 yuan/ton (- 20), LL East China spot 7,280 yuan/ton (+ 0), PP East China spot 7,040 yuan/ton (- 10). LL North China basis was - 87 yuan/ton (+ 4), LL East China basis - 17 yuan/ton (+ 24), PP East China basis - 35 yuan/ton (- 7) [1] - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate was 84.1% (+ 3.0%), PP operating rate 77.3% (+ 0.4%) [1] - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit was 348.6 yuan/ton (+ 56.1), PP oil - based production profit - 121.4 yuan/ton (+ 56.1), PDH - based PP production profit 187.7 yuan/ton (- 115.0) [1] - Imports and Exports: LL import profit was - 74.0 yuan/ton (- 2.2), PP import profit - 498.5 yuan/ton (+ 7.7), PP export profit 29.3 US dollars/ton (- 1.0) [1] - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.1% (+ 0.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 48.7% (+ 0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 41.1% (+ 0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 60.8% (+ 0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - The new production capacity is continuously released, and the future supply - side pressure is large. The maintenance season temporarily offsets the pressure. The propane price is weak, and the cost - side support is weak. The downstream demand is in the off - season, with weak performance. The inventory is slowly decreasing but remains high year - on - year, and the short - term fundamentals are weak [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3]