甲醇日报：下游醋酸开工回落，港口持续累库-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The port accelerated inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol production remained at a high level, and the pressure of arrivals in August increased. The Xingxing MTO device was shut down for maintenance for one month at the end of July. In the inland area, some maintenance work is still scheduled in the northwest in August, and the production will not recover until late August. The inventory of inland methanol factories decreased further, and the inland market was stronger than the port market. However, the production of acetic acid, which had a high operating rate previously, started to decline, and formaldehyde was in the seasonal off - season, waiting for a bottom - up recovery. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inland demand resilience [2]. Summary by Catalog 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures show methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, and basis between methanol in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05 futures contracts, 05 and 09 futures contracts, and 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][19][21]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [23][26][27]. 3. Methanol Production & Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) are presented in figures [31][32]. 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures show regional price differences such as between Luobei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc [39][45][50]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production profits of traditional downstream products including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [41][52]. Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when it is high [3].