装置临停驱动，主力区域现货上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under supply and demand pressure [3] - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Temporary shutdown of Binhuahua device led to a short - term tightening of propylene supply, causing a slight increase in spot prices in the main regions. However, there are expectations of restarting Binhuahua and Tianhong PDH devices and releasing new production capacity, so there is still pressure of loose supply [2] - Demand side: Some polypropylene and octanol devices have restarted, and there is an expectation of recovery for Kaitai acrylic acid. Downstream demand has staged support, and the overall downstream start - up rate has increased slightly month - on - month, but its sustainability is doubtful during the traditional off - season [2] - Cost side: Crude oil prices fluctuate, and geopolitical instability still exists [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents information on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It includes data on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [18][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report shows the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [34][38] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It provides data on the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][43][46] 5. Propylene Inventory - Information on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory is presented [67]