化工日报：延迟货物集中到港，本周主港累库-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,396 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.41% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,475 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.40% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 73 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 7 yuan/ton). Due to the concentrated arrival of delayed goods affected by the typhoon last week, the main ports accumulated inventory this week, causing the price center of ethylene glycol to oscillate downward and the basis to weaken [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$46/ton (a month-on-month increase of $2/ton), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 8 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 486,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 59,000 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the East China main port this week was 138,000 tons. With concentrated arrival plans at the secondary ports, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port area according to the Longzhong caliber was 485,700 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from Monday and an increase of 58,500 tons from last Thursday [2]. - On the supply side, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production in China has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants on the non-coal side have plans or actions to switch from EO to EG, with an overall load that is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and ideally, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, there was concentrated restocking at the terminal in July, significantly alleviating the inventory pressure of filament. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels at the beginning of August, with a slight inventory accumulation in the balance sheet. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable at a low level with a slight increase in August [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,396 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.41% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,475 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.40% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 73 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 7 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$46/ton (a month-on-month increase of $2/ton), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 8 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the text. Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis provided in the text. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 486,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 59,000 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the East China main port this week was 138,000 tons. With concentrated arrival plans at the secondary ports, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port area according to the Longzhong caliber was 485,700 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from Monday and an increase of 58,500 tons from last Thursday [2].