碳酸锂日评：情绪切换速度快、波动大-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are relatively loose as profit margins are restored and production has rebounded, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see and not chase high prices (View Score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - Prices: On August 7, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 70,000 yuan/ton, 71,920 yuan/ton, 72,300 yuan/ton, and 72,300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,140 yuan/ton, 2,660 yuan/ton, 2,680 yuan/ton, and 2,680 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract was 766,669 lots (+341,310), and the open interest was 289,832 lots (+32,062) [1] - Inventory: The inventory was 16,443 tons (+1,420) [1] - Spreads and Basis: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 1,920 yuan/ton (-1,520 compared to the previous day), the basis changed from a premium to a discount [1] 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Products Prices - Lithium Ore: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 757 US dollars/ton (+9), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also increased [1] - Lithium Compounds: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 71,100 yuan/ton (+150), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 69,000 yuan/ton (+150) [1] - Other Products: The prices of products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and cobalt - related products also showed different degrees of changes [1] 3.3 SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory - By Sector: On August 7, 2025, the inventory of smelters was 20,999 tons (-959 compared to the previous week), the inventory of downstream was 48,159 tons (+2,271), and the inventory of others was 43,260 tons (-620). The total inventory was 142,418 tons (+692) [1] 3.4 Market Information - Customs Data: In July, China's total imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% [1] - Market Trends: On August 7, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The production of lithium carbonate increased last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production of ternary materials increased, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased in August, and the production schedule of lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries decreased last week, the production of energy - storage batteries increased in August, and the sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month in July [1]