Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton is "oscillation", and for sugar is "oscillation with a downward bias" [2] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.72% to 66.36 cents per pound, and CF509 decreased 0.15% to 13,670 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 9,339 lots to 272,100 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,089 yuan per ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B was 15,191 yuan per ton, up 13 yuan. Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, with rising expectations of a September interest rate cut and more than 2 cuts this year, and U.S. cotton prices are in low - level oscillation. Domestically, as the 09 contract approaches expiration, the main contract's open interest is decreasing, and the warehouse receipt cancellation speed has slightly increased. After macro - pricing, the market will focus on new cotton. New cotton is expected to have a good harvest with a low opening price, putting pressure on the 01 contract. However, the new - year cotton consumption is expected to be stable, and the inventory - to - sales ratio won't be high. Overall, sentiment is positive, and prices are supported by low spot inventory before new cotton is on the market. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract will oscillate in the short - term and be stronger in the medium - to - long - term [2] - Sugar: Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar and molasses in July, a 4.98% decrease from last year. Spot prices in China are falling. Raw sugar is weak with no new drivers, and the expected increase in production suppresses futures prices. In China, spot prices continue to decline, and processed sugar will put pressure on the market. The market is expected to remain weak [2] Group 3: Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 spread is - 165, down 5; the main contract basis is 1,521, up 33. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,089, up 6, and the national spot price is 15,191, up 13 [3] - Sugar: The 9 - 1 spread is 67, up 5; the main contract basis is 323, down 4. The Nanning spot price is 5,970, down 30, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,990, down 20 [3] Group 4: Market Information - On August 7, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,329, down 135 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts [4] - On August 7, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,089 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,220 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,169 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,265 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [4] - On August 7, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3 (unchanged), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30 (unchanged), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8 (up 0.1), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.7 (down 0.1) [4] - On August 7, the sugar spot prices were 5,970 yuan/ton in Nanning (down 30) and 5,990 yuan/ton in Liuzhou (down 20) [4] - On August 7, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 18,615, down 187 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis - There are charts showing the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota domestic - foreign spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton; as well as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][11][13][16][17][19] Group 6: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [21] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures [22] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23]
光大期货软商品日报(2025年8月8日)-20250808
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-08 03:33