有色商品日报（2025年8月8日）-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose and then fell, down 0.04% to $9,670.5/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.03% to CNY 78,360/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. With weak overseas economic data and concerns about overseas demand, copper prices were generally weak. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights increased supply expectations. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of Indonesian imports, the pressure of alumina surplus increased. The production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on aluminum prices [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.1% to $15,115/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.14% to CNY 121,180/ton. In the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. Fundamentally, there were support from ferronickel and intermediate product prices below and demand suppression above, showing a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: The market focused on tariff negotiations between the US and other economies. There were concerns about US debt. Domestically, policies and anti - involution expectations were important trading considerations. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, Comex copper increased by 174 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons. During the off - season, terminal orders were insufficient, and processing plants' procurement was just for刚需 [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina futures AO2509 closed at CNY 3,170/ton, down 2.28%, with an increase in positions.沪铝 AL2509 closed at CNY 20,670/ton, down 0.46%, with a decrease in positions. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. The processing fees of some aluminum products changed [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The price of ferronickel increased, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreased for four consecutive weeks, but the de - stocking speed slowed down. The domestic inventory of primary nickel decreased slightly, and the output in August was expected to increase by 2% to 33,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On August 7, 2025, the price of flat - copper rose by CNY 155 to CNY 78,470/ton, and the premium rose by CNY 15. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by CNY 100 to CNY 73,100/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by CNY 10 to CNY 16,850/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 800 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 29 tons [3]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes increased. The spot premium decreased by CNY 10 to - CNY 50/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,575 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,737 tons. The alumina inventory increased by 39,000 tons [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by CNY 50 to CNY 123,250/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons [4]. - Zinc: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.9% to CNY 22,530/ton. The weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 793 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,275 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.41 million tons [5]. - Tin: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.3% to CNY 267,530/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 254 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - Social Inventory: Charts illustrate the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - Smelting Profit: Charts display the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [48]. - Wang Heng: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [48]. - Zhu Xi: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [49].