地产融资改善，焦煤技术面触及压力位

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coke is "Bullish", and for coking coal is also "Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints - Macro events are mostly settled, reducing future uncertainties. The Politburo meeting shows optimism about the economy, and the Sino-US-Sweden meeting has limited substantial outcomes. The real estate financing situation has improved in July, which may repair market pessimism [4] - For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major coking coal from Shanxi large mines has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine start - up is slow, downstream replenishment is active, and inventory is transferring from upstream to downstream [4] - For coke, the sixth round of spot price increase has started, the futures price is close to the spot price, and further price increase depends on the rise of downstream steel prices. The coke demand remains resilient, the coke enterprises' inventory is decreasing, and the port's term - hedging positions are increasing [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal 1. Market Conditions - Spot prices are stable, and futures prices are rebounding. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 1,229.5 yuan/ton (+8.5), the basis is - 59.5 yuan/ton (-8.5), and the September - January spread is - 142.5 yuan/ton (+4.5) [2] 2. Supply and Demand - Supply and demand have slightly declined. The operating rate of 523 mines is 86.31% (-0.59), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 61.51% (-0.8), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.48% (-0.13) [2] 3. Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 248.26 million tons (-30.18), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 166.38 million tons (-9.23), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 803.79 million tons (+4.28), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 844.06 million tons (+2.85), and the port inventory is 282.11 million tons (-10.23) [2] Coke 1. Market Conditions - The sixth round of spot price increase has started, and futures prices are rebounding. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1,470 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 1,667.5 yuan/ton (+23), the basis is - 87 yuan/ton (-23), and the September - January spread is - 76.5 yuan/ton (+11.5) [3] 2. Supply and Demand - Supply and demand are flat month - on - month, but there is still a gap. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.48% (-0.13), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.24% (-0.57), and the daily average hot metal output is 240.71 million tons (-1.52) [3] 3. Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, downstream inventory is changing, and port inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 46.52 million tons (-3.6), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 626.69 million tons (-13.29), and the port inventory is 215.1 million tons (+16.97) [3] Strategy Suggestions - With the reduction of macro uncertainties, the market will return to the industrial logic. It is recommended to reduce the long positions of J01/JM01 and add positions after the callback. The coking coal market may remain strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the adjustment risk [4][5]