中辉期货日刊-20250808

Report Sector Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bearish [1] - PP: Cautiously bearish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply glut leads to weakening oil prices, but downside support is rising; short - term there may be a small rebound [1]. - LPG has a low valuation, and its position has risen to a recent high, increasing the rebound momentum [1]. - Cost support for L has weakened, while the spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - The cost of PP continues to fall, the total commercial inventory continues to accumulate, and the export profit margin has turned negative, with weak downstream restocking power [1]. - The upstream operation of PVC has increased, and the social inventory has accumulated for 7 consecutive weeks; the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [1]. - The supply - demand of PX is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high; the cost support of oil prices is expected to weaken [1]. - The operation of PTA devices has little change, the demand is weak, and the cost support is expected to weaken [1]. - The operation of ethylene glycol devices has increased slightly, the arrival and import are lower than the same period, and the demand is weak [1]. - As the delivery month approaches, the market focus of glass has shifted from macro - policy expectations to its own fundamentals, and the inventory has stopped falling and started to increase [2]. - The pattern of the soda ash industry has not improved significantly, the supply is high, and the inventory has increased [2]. - The supply and inventory of caustic soda in Shandong are abundant, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially, showing a supply - surplus situation [2]. - The domestic methanol maintenance devices have resumed production, the overseas devices' load has increased, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be high; the demand is expected to weaken [2]. - The operation load of urea devices is expected to increase, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is relatively good [2]. - The cost of asphalt has compression space, the supply of raw materials is sufficient, and the supply - demand has decreased, with a neutral - bearish fundamental situation [2]. - The spot price of propylene in East China and Shandong has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the downstream demand has not kept up, with obvious surplus pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI down 0.73%, Brent down 0.69%, and SC up slightly by 0.02% [3]. - Basic Logic: The support of the peak season for oil prices is gradually decreasing, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices is gradually rising. The oil price still has compression space, but the downside support is gradually strengthening, and it may be suppressed around $60 in the medium - to - long term [4]. - Fundamentals: In May, US crude oil production increased by 24,000 barrels per day to 13.488 million barrels per day; in July, Kazakhstan supplied 160,000 tons of oil to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline; in July, the crude oil shipped from Russian ports was 3.46 million barrels per day. As of August 3, the arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries decreased by 190,000 tons, a decline of 8.18%. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. After taking profit on short positions, you can wait and see. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 505] [6]. 3.2 LPG - Market Review: On August 7, the PG main contract closed at 3,837 yuan/ton, up 0.05% month - on - month [9]. - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price is weak, the basis is at a high level, and the position has risen rapidly recently. As of August 7, the number of warehouse receipts was 10,199 lots, up 480 lots month - on - month. As of the week of August 8, the LPG commodity volume was 529,200 tons, up 2,700 tons week - on - week [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long term, the center of gravity is expected to move down. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound. Try to go long with a light position. Pay attention to the range of PG [3750 - 3870] [11]. 3.3 L - Market Review: The L2509 contract closed at 7,297 yuan/ton, and the L9 - 1 spread was - 67 yuan/ton [15]. - Basic Logic: Cost support has weakened, the spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the basis has strengthened. Most devices have restarted recently, and the supply pressure has increased marginally. The social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks. As the delivery month approaches, industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions [18]. 3.4 PP - Market Review: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,075 yuan/ton, and the PP9 - 1 spread was - 31 yuan/ton [22]. - Basic Logic: The cost continues to fall, the total commercial inventory continues to accumulate, the export profit margin has turned negative, and the downstream restocking power is weak. The basis for further negative fundamentals is limited, and there is technical support at the bottom [24]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on short positions gradually when the price is low [25]. 3.5 PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 5,046 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 251 lots [29]. - Basic Logic: The upstream operation has increased, and the social inventory has accumulated for 7 consecutive weeks. The calcium carbide price has risen continuously, and the cost support has improved. New production capacity will be released in August, and the supply - demand is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [31]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for a rebound and then go short. Pay attention to the range of V [4900 - 5200] [32]. 3.6 PX - Market Review: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton. The PX9 - 1 spread was 22 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 118 yuan/ton [35]. - Basic Logic: The domestic and overseas devices have little change. The PXN spread is at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The demand has weakened slightly but is expected to improve. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high [36]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to low - buying opportunities; at the same time, sell call options. Pay attention to the range of PX [6700 - 6790] [37]. 3.7 PTA - Market Review: On August 1, the PTA price in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was - 38 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was - 4 yuan/ton [39]. - Basic Logic: The operation of the devices has decreased slightly. The demand of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand tight - balance in August is expected to ease, and the cost support is expected to weaken [40]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on long positions, pay attention to high - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of TA [4640 - 4710] [41]. 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 75 yuan/ton [43]. - Basic Logic: The domestic and overseas devices have increased their load slightly, but the arrival and import are still lower than the same period. The demand of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in July and August, and the inventory is low [44]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on long positions, pay attention to high - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of EG [4360 - 4410] [45]. 3.9 Glass - Market Review: The spot market quotation has continued to decline, the futures price has fallen slightly, the basis in Hubei has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [48]. - Basic Logic: The "anti - involution" policy expectation is repeated, the market risk preference has declined, and the sentiment is cautious. A glass production line has been restarted, the production has increased, the sales have slowed down, and the inventory has increased [49]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of FG2509 [1050, 1080] [50]. 3.10 Soda Ash - Market Review: The spot price of heavy soda ash has declined, the futures price has fallen slightly, the negative basis has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts has increased [53]. - Basic Logic: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down. The supply has increased slightly this week, and the inventory has ended three weeks of destocking. The supply - demand surplus pattern has not improved significantly, and the fundamentals are bearish [54]. - Strategy Recommendation: Not clearly stated in the text. 3.11 Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot price of liquid caustic soda has declined, the futures price has fallen, the center of gravity has moved down, the main - contract basis has narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [58]. - Basic Logic: The supply and inventory of caustic soda in Shandong are abundant. The terminal alumina industry's demand for caustic soda is low, and the non - aluminum terminal demand is limited. The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly, and the demand has not improved substantially [59]. - Strategy Recommendation: Not clearly stated in the text. 3.12 Methanol - Market Review: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 2 yuan/ton, the port basis was - 8 yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 spread was - 92 yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit was 61 US dollars/ton [61]. - Basic Logic: The domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, the overseas devices' load has increased, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be high. The demand is expected to weaken, the social inventory has accumulated, and the cost support has stabilized [62]. - Strategy Recommendation: Add short positions at high prices for the 09 contract and sell call options; pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract. Take profit on the MA9 - 1 spread gradually when it rebounds. Pay attention to the range of MA [2355 - 2400] [63]. 3.13 Urea - Market Review: Not clearly stated in the text. - Basic Logic: The operation load of urea devices is expected to increase next week, the domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, the factory inventory has decreased but is still high compared with the same period, and the export is relatively good [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions carefully for the 09 contract and pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [2]. 3.14 Asphalt - Market Review: Not clearly stated in the text. - Basic Logic: The cost of oil has compression space, the supply of raw materials is sufficient, the supply - demand has decreased, the inventory has accumulated, and the fundamental situation is neutral - bearish [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: Try to go short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of BU [3450 - 3550] [2]. 3.15 Propylene - Market Review: Not clearly stated in the text. - Basic Logic: The spot price in East China and Shandong has increased, the cost support has weakened, the upstream operation rate has decreased marginally, the downstream demand has not kept up, and the factory inventory has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, with obvious surplus pressure [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions [2].