关税担忧反复，?价波动加剧

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are affected by Trump's repeated tariff threats and the number of initial jobless claims exceeding market expectations, with gold prices approaching the $3400 mark [2][3] - The gold market sentiment will turn positive as the trading on the short - term resilience of the US economy may end, and the market will return to the pricing logic of a weakening US fundamentals and the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle [5] - Gold has a long - term bullish trend. The slowdown of the US fundamentals and the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle provide medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit builds the long - term bullish foundation [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Putin and Trump may meet next week [4] - China's exports denominated in US dollars in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, reaching a three - month high, and the year - on - year growth rates of imports and exports both accelerated [4] - S&P Global confirmed China's long - term credit rating as A+ and said that China's strong fiscal stimulus measures would maintain economic growth resilience [4] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 2 was 226,000, exceeding the expected 221,000 [4] Price Logic - Gold prices rose slightly in the Asian trading session on Thursday but failed to break through the $3400/ounce mark. Trump's new tariff threats reignited market concerns about global trade conflicts, and the number of initial jobless claims exceeding expectations increased short - term safe - haven demand [5] - The expectation of the Fed restarting interest - rate cuts in September supported gold prices and pressured the US dollar, but the positive risk sentiment in global stock markets limited the increase in gold prices [5] Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is [3300, 3500], and for spot London silver is [36, 40] [8] - At the global central bank annual meeting in late August, Powell's statement is expected to change, and the accelerated pace of the Fed's leadership change may bring changes to the expected interest - rate path next year and concerns about the Fed's independence, amplifying price elasticity [8]