能源化策略：美俄商定下周和谈，地缘对原油的?撑减弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report did not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the mid - term outlook for each variety, most are rated as "oscillating", indicating that the industry is expected to have price fluctuations within a certain range in the future 2 - 12 weeks [276]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry as a whole continues to show an oscillating and consolidating pattern, with an unclear trend. The prices of most varieties are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. For example, the expectation of Russia - US negotiations has alleviated geopolitical premiums, and the supply and demand of various products have different impacts on prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the risk of Russian oil. - Main Logic: The expectation of Russia - US negotiations has led to a moderation of geopolitical premiums. Although the high operation of Chinese and American refineries currently supports demand, the pressure on refined oil inventories is expected to reappear, and OPEC + supply is in an accelerated release period. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation, focusing on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - Viewpoint: Crude oil is testing the support level, and asphalt futures prices are waiting for a direction. - Main Logic: The increase in OPEC + production and other factors have put pressure on crude oil, and asphalt futures prices are affected by crude oil. The spot market shows a pattern of stronger in the north and weaker in the south, and the sales pressure is increasing. - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: High - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating. - Main Logic: The increase in OPEC + production and the weakening of geopolitical conflicts have led to an increase in heavy - oil supply. Domestic import tariffs have been raised, and downstream demand is weak. - Outlook: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will oscillate weakly [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate following crude oil. - Main Logic: It follows the trend of crude oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the increase in diesel cracking spreads, it also faces multiple negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand. - Outlook: Affected by green fuel substitution and other factors, with limited demand space, it will follow the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 Methanol - Viewpoint: The support from olefins is limited, and methanol oscillates. - Main Logic: The coal end has a short - term driving effect, and the port inventory has increased. The downstream olefin prices are under pressure, and there may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation [22]. 3.1.6 Urea - Viewpoint: Export information has been finalized, market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price may decline. - Main Logic: The export information did not meet market expectations, and combined with weak downstream demand, the futures price is under pressure. - Outlook: The futures price may decline in the short term, and attention should be paid to the further implementation of export information [23]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - Viewpoint: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. - Main Logic: Coal - based plants are restarting, and delayed imported goods have led to port inventory accumulation. With weak supply - demand drivers, the price will remain low. - Outlook: The price will oscillate within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [17]. 3.1.8 PX - Viewpoint: Lack of drivers and guidance, maintaining oscillating consolidation. - Main Logic: The futures price oscillates, the cost end lacks guidance, and the supply - demand pattern has limited marginal changes. - Outlook: Oscillation [11]. 3.1.9 PTA - Viewpoint: Limited drivers, low - level consolidation for observation. - Main Logic: Multiple plants have short - term shutdowns and restarts, and the inventory has decreased. However, due to sufficient spot liquidity, the profit repair is limited. - Outlook: Oscillation, focusing on the implementation of large - scale plant maintenance at the beginning of August [12]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: Both supply and demand increase, with a slight reduction in inventory. - Main Logic: The price follows the upstream raw materials, the factory load increases slightly, and downstream demand leads to a slight reduction in inventory. - Outlook: The processing fee is weakly stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - Viewpoint: The price is passively following, maintaining low - level consolidation. - Main Logic: The price follows the upstream polyester raw materials, with weak supply - demand drivers and a decline in processing fees. - Outlook: The processing fee has support at the bottom, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [20]. 3.1.12 PP - Viewpoint: The impacts of oil and coal are differentiated, and PP oscillates. - Main Logic: The coal end has a short - term boosting effect, while the oil price oscillates weakly. The supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation [28]. 3.1.13 Propylene - Viewpoint: The PP - PL spread around 600 is relatively reasonable, and PL oscillates in the short term. - Main Logic: Propylene enterprise inventories are controllable, and the price follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation [29]. 3.1.14 Plastic - Viewpoint: The maintenance support is general, and plastic oscillates. - Main Logic: The oil price oscillates weakly, the macro - end has capital games, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. - Outlook: The 09 contract oscillates in the short term [27]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: Lack of drivers, pure benzene oscillates weakly. - Main Logic: The macro - sentiment has declined, the price of crude oil has fluctuated, and the concentrated production of upstream and downstream plants has affected the supply - demand relationship. - Outlook: In August, the supply increases, but there is new downstream production, and the balance sheet is expected to have a slight reduction in inventory [14]. 3.1.16 Styrene - Viewpoint: Inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene oscillates weakly. - Main Logic: The downstream restocking is not sustainable, the supply has increased, and the market is worried about the fundamentals. - Outlook: The price may oscillate slightly weakly [16]. 3.1.17 PVC - Viewpoint: Strong expectation but weak reality, PVC mainly oscillates. - Main Logic: The macro - sentiment is optimistic, but the fundamentals are under pressure, with an expected increase in production and stable downstream demand. - Outlook: The futures price oscillates [31]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: The spot price is accelerating its decline, and the futures price is running weakly. - Main Logic: The macro - sentiment is optimistic, but the fundamentals show an increase in supply and a slow increase in demand, with inventory accumulation pressure. - Outlook: The spot price is accelerating its decline, and short - positions can take profits at low levels [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Cross - Period Spread: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent M1 - M2 with a latest value of 0.61 and a change of - 0.01 [34]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 232 with a change of 11, and the warehouse receipt is 76650 [35]. - Cross - Variety Spread: There are different cross - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread with a latest value of - 385 and a change of 4 [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.