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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "shock". Specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon all have a mid - term outlook of "shock" [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand performance of the black building materials industry is weak, and the prices are in high - level shock. Although the fundamentals of individual varieties change little, there are still certain support factors, and the prices may rebound before the spot pressure appears. The market is mainly dominated by capital behavior, and it is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks. Subsequently, the implementation of policies and terminal demand performance should be mainly concerned [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but after the typhoon disturbance, the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly, and the iron ore port area's total inventory increased, with a limited overall inventory accumulation range [2]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises has risen to the highest level in the same period in the past three years. Due to routine maintenance of steel mills, the molten iron output decreased slightly, remaining at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production reduction in the short term due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2]. - Outlook: With limited bearish driving forces in the fundamentals, the future price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Supply: The "276 - working - day" production organization plan of some coal mines in Shanxi has emerged, and the supply - side disturbance continues. The output of some local coal mines is limited due to underground and other factors, and the output of some coal mines will be reduced to a certain extent in the second half of the year under the influence of over - production verification. The supply of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased month - on - month this week. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has been maintaining more than a thousand trucks [2]. - Demand: After the previous centralized purchasing, downstream users are currently purchasing on demand. There were many pre - sold orders in coal mines before, and the upstream coal mines are still destocking [2]. - Outlook: Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent. Subsequently, regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal import conditions should be concerned [2]. 3.3 Alloys Manganese Silicon - Cost: The price of coke has been continuously increased, and the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The manganese ore market is more wait - and - see, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and the port ore price remains firm [3]. - Supply - demand: Steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished products remains stable at a high level. The downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, in an environment of profit repair, the resumption process of manufacturers continues to advance, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser [3]. - Outlook: The contradictions in the current spot fundamentals are limited. In the short term, the price of manganese silicon is expected to fluctuate following the performance of the sector [3]. Ferrosilicon - Supply: The output of ferrosilicon is expected to accelerate the recovery. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production - restriction requirements [15]. - Demand: The output of steel products remains stable at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. In the metal magnesium market, due to tight supply, magnesium plants' price - holding sentiment remains strong, but high - level transactions in the market are relatively cold, and the game between upstream and downstream in the magnesium market continues [15]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the performance of the sector. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the price needs to be viewed with caution, and the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs should be concerned [15]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and 1 production line has been cold - repaired. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable, and the upstream inventory has decreased slightly [6]. - Demand: In the off - season, the demand has declined, the deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass have increased month - on - month, indicating downstream speculative purchases. After the decline of the futures price, the sentiment in the spot market has declined, the middle - stream shipments have increased, and the upstream production and sales have declined significantly [6]. - Outlook: In the short term, the futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the long run, the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply pattern has not changed. The production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. The output is running at a high level, and the supply pressure still exists. Some manufacturers' production has recovered today, and the output is expected to continue to increase in the future [6]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There are still ignition production lines that have not produced glass. The expected daily melting volume of float glass is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline, falling below 90,000 tons this week, with the current daily melting volume at 89,800 tons. The demand for heavy soda ash has weakened. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has weakened, and the overall downstream demand is poor, mainly for periodic restocking [6]. - Outlook: In the short term, after the rapid decline of the price, it is at a discount to the spot price, and it is expected to fluctuate in the future. In the long run, the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. 3.6 Steel - Supply: Some steel mills have resumed production, and there is a transfer of molten iron. The output of rebar has increased, and the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased [8]. - Demand: Affected by the weakening of the typhoon, the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded, but the inventory continues to accumulate. In the off - season, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has decreased, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the demand has decreased, and the inventory has accumulated, showing off - season characteristics [8]. - Outlook: The anti - involution sentiment in the steel and coal industries is still high. Currently, the fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally, but the inventory is low, and there are still production - restriction disturbances before the military parade. The short - term futures price still has support. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the steel mills' production - restriction situation and terminal demand performance [8]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Supply: This week, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and the willingness to ship is low. The arrival volume of scrap steel has continued to decline [9]. - Demand: The profit of electric furnaces is good, and the daily consumption has increased to a high level in the same period. In terms of blast furnaces, the molten iron output has decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process steelmaking has also decreased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in long - and short - process steelmaking has increased slightly [9]. - Outlook: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and the demand has increased. The fundamentals have strengthened marginally, and the market sentiment is optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.8 Coke - Supply: After the full implementation of the fifth round of price increases, the profits of coking enterprises have been alleviated, and their production starts have improved. The coke output has temporarily stabilized [9]. - Demand: Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a high level. Upstream coking enterprises have smooth shipments, and their inventory has been continuously reduced. Mid - stream futures - spot traders have gradually released their goods, and the arrival of goods at downstream steel mills has improved [9]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and the short - term price still has support. Some coking enterprises still have the intention to increase the price for the sixth round. Subsequently, the possible military parade production - restriction policy should be concerned [9]. 3.9 Coking Coal - Supply: The "276 - working - day" production organization plan of some coal mines in Shanxi has emerged, and the supply - side disturbance continues. The output of some local coal mines is limited due to underground and other factors, and the output of some coal mines will be reduced to a certain extent in the second half of the year under the influence of over - production verification. The supply of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased month - on - month this week. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has been maintaining more than a thousand trucks [11]. - Demand: The coke output has temporarily stabilized, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous centralized purchasing, downstream users are currently purchasing on demand. There were many pre - sold orders in coal mines before, and the upstream coal mines are still destocking [11]. - Outlook: Under the influence of over - production verification of coal mines, the recovery of coking coal supply is expected to be slow. With the poor supply expectation, the market sentiment has warmed up. In the short term, the futures price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall [11].