7月中国进出口数据超预期，有色一度受到提振

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the ratings are as follows: - Copper: Oscillating [6][7][9] - Alumina: Oscillating with high volatility, suggesting a short - term high - risk, high - reward situation [7][8][10] - Aluminum: Oscillating, with a short - term expectation of a weakening trend [10][11][12] - Aluminum Alloy: Oscillating, with potential for an upward movement in the future [12][13][15] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly, with a long - term bearish outlook [15][16] - Lead: Oscillating [17][19] - Nickel: Oscillating in the short - term, bearish in the long - term [19][24] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short - term [25] - Tin: Oscillating [26][27] 2. Core Views of the Report - The 7 - month Chinese import and export data exceeded expectations, which initially boosted the non - ferrous metals market. However, the increasing risk of a US recession, reflected in poor employment data and declining PMI, along with a drop in European investor confidence, has created a complex market environment. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts have weakened the US dollar, offsetting some of the negative impacts of the recession expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance for base metals is loosening seasonally, with increasing inventory in China, which exerts downward pressure on prices. However, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions for copper, aluminum, and tin provide some support [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Information Analysis: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1st. The Fed maintained interest rates in July. Chinese electrolytic copper production increased significantly in July and in the first 7 months of 2025. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had a positive premium on August 7th, and the copper inventory decreased slightly to 13.2 million tons [6]. - Main Logic: Macroeconomic factors, such as poor US employment data, have increased the risk of an overseas recession, putting pressure on copper prices. On the supply - demand side, low processing fees for copper ore and concentrate indicate tight raw - material supply, and the weakening downstream replenishment demand and rising inventory have reduced the upward momentum of copper prices. The upcoming tariff deadline has made investors cautious [7]. - Outlook: Copper is expected to oscillate due to supply constraints and low inventory, but with weakening demand and the US tariff impact [7]. Alumina - Information Analysis: The spot prices of alumina in different regions were mostly stable on August 7th, except for a slight increase in Guizhou. Some alumina plants in Shanxi faced production fluctuations due to ore - supply issues. A small - scale alumina transaction occurred in Guizhou on August 7th, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased significantly [7][8]. - Main Logic: Short - term market sentiment and warehouse - receipt issues dominate the alumina market, leading to high volatility. Fundamentally, the ample low - cost ore for smelters has supported increased production, resulting in an oversupply situation and rising inventory. However, the relatively low level of warehouse receipts and potential supply disruptions need to be monitored [10]. - Outlook: Alumina is expected to continue its high - volatility oscillation in the short - term. Traders can short at high prices based on warehouse - receipt changes and consider a 9 - 1 reverse spread [10]. Aluminum - Information Analysis: The average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased on August 7th. The inventory of aluminum bars decreased, while the inventory of aluminum ingots increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The US has imposed new tariffs on multiple countries [10][11]. - Main Logic: Macro - economic factors, such as the US tariffs, have created uncertainty in demand. The supply capacity is stable, while the demand is in a seasonal lull, with low downstream开工 rates and mainly rigid - demand purchases. Inventory is accumulating, suggesting a short - term weakening trend for aluminum prices [12]. - Outlook: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the consumption situation and inventory build - up need further observation [12]. Aluminum Alloy - Information Analysis: The price of Baotai ADC12 increased on August 7th. The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly. Some aluminum - related projects, such as new recycling plants and smelters, are in the works. A Chinese company reported positive financial results in the first half of 2025 [12][13]. - Main Logic: The supply - demand situation for aluminum alloy remains weak in the short - term. The firm waste - aluminum prices provide cost support. Supply and demand are both affected by the off - season, with low downstream purchasing interest. The inventory situation shows a decrease in factory inventory and an increase in social inventory [15]. - Outlook: The prices of ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, with potential for an upward movement in the future. Traders can consider cross - product arbitrage [15]. Zinc - Information Analysis: The spot price of zinc in different regions had a negative premium on August 7th. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 11.32 million tons. A large - scale lead - zinc smelting project in Xinjiang started production [15][16]. - Main Logic: In the short - term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has led to a rebound in the prices of black - series metals. The US dollar index has weakened due to poor employment data. The supply of zinc ore is loosening, and smelters are profitable and willing to produce. However, demand is in a traditional off - season, with limited new orders [16]. - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with a long - term bearish outlook as supply is likely to increase while demand growth is limited [16]. Lead - Information Analysis: The price of waste electric - vehicle batteries remained stable on August 7th, while the price of SMM1 lead ingots increased slightly. The lead ingot inventory decreased slightly, and the Shanghai lead futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Some regenerative lead plants in Anhui were affected by environmental inspections [17]. - Main Logic: On the spot market, the discount narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and regenerative lead increased. The supply side shows an increase in the production of regenerative lead due to rising raw - material inventory and a partial recovery of primary lead production. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with an increase in the operating rate [17][19]. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate due to a combination of macro - economic factors and the changing supply - demand situation in the lead - acid battery market [19]. Nickel - Information Analysis: The LME nickel inventory decreased slightly on August 7th, while the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts also decreased. There have been multiple developments in the nickel industry, including asset acquisitions, investment plans, production - forecast adjustments, and policy proposals in Indonesia [19][20][21][22]. - Main Logic: Market sentiment currently drives the nickel market, with stable static valuation. The industry's fundamentals are weakening marginally. The ore supply may loosen after the rainy season, and the impact of Indonesian policies is gradually diminishing. The production of nickel intermediates has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has declined slightly, while the production of nickel sulfate from nickel beans remains unprofitable. High inventory levels put pressure on prices [24]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term and decline in the long - term [24]. Stainless Steel - Information Analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts increased on August 7th. The spot price of stainless steel in Foshan had no premium on the same day. The price of nickel iron increased, and the market sentiment was bullish [25]. - Main Logic: The prices of nickel iron and chromium iron have stabilized or increased. Despite the traditional off - season, the supply of stainless steel remains high, and there is a risk of weakening demand. The inventory situation has improved, with a reduction in both social and warehouse - receipt inventory [25]. - Outlook: Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, considering the rising cost and the limited improvement in demand during the off - season. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost fluctuations [25]. Tin - Information Analysis: The LME tin warehouse receipts increased slightly on August 7th, while the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of 1 tin ingots decreased. It is expected that there will be an increase in tin - ore production starting from August or September [26]. - Main Logic: Although the resumption of production in the Wa State's tin mines is expected to increase supply, the current tight supply situation remains unchanged. The low processing fees for tin concentrate and the low operating rate of smelters indicate a supply shortage. However, the demand for tin has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, which limits the upward movement of prices [27]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to oscillate, with potential for increased volatility in August due to changes in macro - economic, capital, and supply - demand factors [27].