碳酸锂日评20250808：情绪切换速度快、波动大-20250808

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are relatively loose with profit recovery and increased production, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to wait and see and not chase high prices (View Score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - Prices: On August 7, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 70,000 yuan/ton, 71,920 yuan/ton, 72,300 yuan/ton, and 72,300 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day. The closing price of the active contract was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract was 766,669 lots (+341,310), and the open interest was 289,832 lots (+32,062) [1]. - Inventory: The inventory was 16,443 tons, an increase of 1,420 tons from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts were 16,443 tons (+1,420) [1]. - Spreads and Basis: The spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 1,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,520 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate dry average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) changed from a premium to a discount, decreasing by 2,530 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Lithium Ore and Lithium - Related Product Prices - Lithium Ore: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 757 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The prices of various types of lithium mica also increased [1]. - Lithium - Related Products: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton. The average price of some lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and phosphoric acid lithium iron also showed an upward trend [1]. 3.3 Cobalt Spot Prices - The average price of electrolytic cobalt remained unchanged at 266,500 yuan/ton. The average prices of cobalt sulfate and tricobalt tetroxide increased by 100 yuan/ton and 650 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.4 SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,418 tons on August 7, 2025, an increase of 692 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory of downstream increased by 2,271 tons, while the inventory of smelters and others decreased [1]. 3.5 Market News and Demand - Supply Situation - Market News: In July, China's imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8% [1]. - Supply - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. The production of phosphoric acid lithium iron and ternary materials increased, while the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide decreased and that of lithium manganate increased in August. The production of power batteries decreased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in August [1].