可转债周报:待发转债格局如何?-20250808
Changjiang Securities·2025-08-08 05:15
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the convertible bond market experienced intensified structural differentiation, with the index under slight pressure, mid - cap style leading the decline, and risk appetite marginally decreasing. The market style tilted towards growth, with technology and pharmaceutical themes driving the activity of related convertible bonds. The manufacturing sectors such as power equipment and electronics attracted more capital attention, and speculative varieties performed well. The valuation continued to undergo structural adjustment, with the repair momentum remaining in the medium - low price range and the high - price range under pressure. The supply rhythm of the primary market was stable, with many redemption and downward - revision events, and the speculative sentiment heated up. It is recommended to focus on individual bonds with fundamental support, valuation safety margins, and liquidity guarantees, and flexibly cope with style rotation and market fluctuations [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1待发转债格局如何? - As of August 2, 2025, there were 75 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total planned fundraising scale of 108.2 billion yuan. The banking, power equipment, basic chemicals, and electronics sectors were the main sources of issuance, accounting for nearly 60% of the total scale. The banking sector led with a high average scale of 7.25 billion yuan, contributing nearly 27% of the scale, indicating its strong refinancing demand. The electronics and power equipment sectors led in terms of quantity, reflecting the active convertible bond financing of manufacturing enterprises. Among the 33 convertible bonds to be issued that had entered the exchange stage, the banking sector still dominated, accounting for 43% of the scale [13]. - The convertible bond projects of the banking, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology sectors advanced slowly. The convertible bond projects of the national defense and military industry, public utilities, and transportation sectors had a stronger expectation of issuance. The manufacturing sectors such as electronics and automobiles had a strong financing willingness and a fast project advancement rhythm. From the perspective of asset - liability ratio, some industries such as basic chemicals, electronics, and communications had a stronger motivation to promote conversion after issuing convertible bonds [8][15]. 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review 3.2.1 Equity Theme Weekly Review - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the trading themes in the equity market were active, with technology and pharmaceutical themes leading the rise. The optical module (CPO) index led the major theme directions with a weekly cross - week increase of 8.3% and a weekly trading volume of 263.13 billion yuan. The first - board non - ST index and the daily limit index had cross - week increases of over 7%. Pharmaceutical themes such as the pharmaceutical centralized procurement index and the COVID - 19 specific drug index also performed well. Some technology and new energy themes showed corrections [23]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Weekly Review - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the convertible bond market was under pressure, with the trading enthusiasm slightly declining, and the capital risk preference converging. The style switched to defensive varieties. The overall valuation was compressed, and the price structure continued to differentiate. The high - price range was under obvious pressure, while the valuation of low - price convertible bonds was repaired. The implied volatility fluctuated downward, and the market sentiment became cautious. The pharmaceutical and power equipment sectors still attracted capital. Individual bonds showed differentiation, and the leading gainers were mostly driven by strong underlying stocks, showing medium - to long - term and theme - speculative characteristics [25][27]. 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking 3.3.1 Main Indexes Corrected, and the Pharmaceutical Sector Remained the Main Line of the Week - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the main A - share indexes were generally under pressure. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9% cross - week, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.6%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%. The small - and medium - cap stocks in the science and technology innovation category were relatively resistant to decline. The market's main funds continued to flow out, and the outflow pressure increased. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was about 1.8 trillion yuan, the same as last week [29]. - The A - share market continued the structural differentiation pattern. The pharmaceutical and technology sectors performed strongly, while the consumer and cyclical sectors showed differentiation. The market capital concentrated on the pharmaceutical and technology sectors, and was cautious about the cyclical and high - level correction sectors. In terms of trading volume, the electronics, pharmaceutical, and computer sectors had increased trading volumes, while the non - ferrous metals, power equipment, and machinery sectors had significant capital outflows [34][35]. 3.3.2 The Convertible Bond Market Continued to Strengthen, and Mid - Cap Convertible Bonds Performed Well - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the convertible bond market was under pressure, with all major indexes falling. Mid - cap convertible bonds led the decline, and small - cap convertible bonds were relatively resistant to decline. The trading activity of the convertible bond market declined, with the average daily trading volume of about 8.244 billion yuan, a decrease of 341 million yuan from the previous week. The convertible bond valuation was compressed according to the parity range and showed a differentiated pattern according to the market price range. The implied volatility of the convertible bond market fluctuated downward, and the market sentiment became cautious. The median price of convertible bonds oscillated downward [44][46][48]. - The convertible bond market by sector generally weakened, with the capital concentration slightly increasing. The pharmaceutical, building materials, and power equipment sectors had the highest average daily trading volumes. Individual bonds were generally under pressure, with technology and cyclical sectors performing better. The leading gainers were mostly driven by strong underlying stocks and showed high - elasticity and theme - speculative preferences [57][58][59]. 3.4 Issuance and Clause Tracking - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, 1 convertible bond was listed, and 11 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans. The total scale of the projects in the exchange acceptance stage and later was 50.05 billion yuan [66][67][68]. - In terms of downward - revision and redemption clauses, 4 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward - revision, 2 proposed downward - revision, 8 announced no downward - revision, 8 announced that they were expected to trigger early redemption, 7 announced no early redemption, and 3 announced early redemption [75][80].