现货压力较大，糖价震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. International cotton prices lack a clear driving force and are expected to fluctuate with macro - market sentiment. In China, inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices, and the demand outlook in the second half of the year is uncertain [2] - Sugar: The global sugar market may still be in an increasing production cycle. Brazilian sugar production is accelerating, which will suppress raw sugar futures prices. The upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, with short - term range - bound fluctuations, a possible tail - up market in the fourth quarter, and increasing downward pressure as new sugar is listed [5][6] - Pulp: The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, with looser supply of broad - leaf pulp than coniferous pulp. The demand side is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited. The pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9][10] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,089 yuan/ton, a change of + 6 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,191 yuan/ton, a change of + 13 yuan/ton. In Brazil, as of August 1, the cotton picking progress in Mato Grosso was 18.3%, 16.4 percentage points behind the same period last year. On August 6, the local cotton price was 73.07 cents/pound, up 1.1% from the previous day and down 3.8% from the high in early July [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather story is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market in the 25/26 season may be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton sown area is higher than expected, the drought has improved, and export contracts are weak, so the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is decreasing rapidly, imports in the third quarter are expected to be low, and there is an expectation of tight inventory before the new cotton is listed. However, the new cotton is growing well with a strong production - increasing expectation, the terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices, and the demand outlook in the second half of the year is uncertain [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Considering the sufficient supply of the global cotton market in the new year, there is no continuous upward driving force in the long - term industrial end. Zhengzhou cotton should be treated with a pressure - bearing and volatile mindset in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,667 yuan/ton, a change of - 16 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,830 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton. As of the week of August 6, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 80, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.5777 million tons, a 0.69% increase from the previous week [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: In Brazil, the sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the first half of July accelerated, and the sugar - making ratio was at a historical high. The supply outlook is improving, and raw sugar is in a weak shock. The new sugar production estimates in India and Thailand are optimistic, and the global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. In the third quarter, the peak crushing season in Brazil will suppress raw sugar futures prices. Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is low. However, the expected increase in imports will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, with a possible tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but there is an increasing downward pressure as new sugar is listed [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - term trend should be treated with a bearish mindset [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,186 yuan/ton, a change of + 16 yuan/ton (+ 0.31%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian needles was 5,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The import pulp spot market price was stable [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year, and more pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory removal is slow, and there is still supply pressure in the second half of the year, with looser supply of broad - leaf pulp. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. In China, affected by the off - season, the demand is weak, the finished paper inventory pressure is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and there is no positive driving force in the industrial chain. The pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [10]