原油早报：市场情绪平淡，原油低位震荡-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil showed a lackluster performance with six consecutive negative closes, and the market sentiment was relatively weak. Although there were potential supply tightening and strong demand signals, the market reaction was flat due to the approaching end of the traditional demand peak season, India's strong response, and the progress of the US - Russia talks. The current oil price is approaching a key support level and faces a directional choice. There is a risk of the oil price breaking down due to the accumulation of US commercial crude oil inventories and the approaching seasonal demand inflection point. It is recommended to short on rallies [1][2][3][5] Summary by Directory Market Structure - The report presents the WTI forward curve, WTI monthly spreads, Brent forward curve, Brent monthly spreads, SC forward curve, and SC crude oil monthly spreads, showing the latest data and those from one and two weeks ago [11][14][16] Supply - The report shows data on US crude oil production, rigs, and active fracturing fleets, as well as OPEC+ member countries' production. It also includes the US refinery utilization rate and the refining plant utilization rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation units) [21][24] Demand - The report shows the production of crude oil in countries such as Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia, reflecting the supply - side situation related to demand [30] Inventory - The report presents data on US crude oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves, commercial crude oil in the whole US, and commercial crude oil in Cushing, as well as the inventories of gasoline, aviation kerosene, and distillate fuel oil [27][31] Position/US Dollar - The report shows the WTI fund position, Brent fund position, WTI total position, Brent total position, and the US dollar index [32][33]