中泰国际每日晨讯-20250808

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a continuous rise for four days, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 171 points or 0.7%, closing at 25,081 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.3%, closing at 5,546 points. The market turnover exceeded HKD 245.7 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 660 million from the Stock Connect, indicating a significant reduction in net inflow compared to previous days [1] - The trading style of the Stock Connect has shifted from banking, insurance, and pharmaceutical stocks to technology growth stocks led by Tencent and Alibaba, which is beneficial for stabilizing the Hong Kong market [1] - The A-share margin financing and securities lending balance has risen above CNY 2 trillion, reaching a 10-year high, indicating a positive trend in the A-share market and supporting the performance of Hong Kong stocks [1] Macro Dynamics - China's July import and export data exceeded expectations, with exports rising by 7.2% year-on-year, the fastest growth in three months. Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased by 9.2% and 16.6%, respectively, offsetting a 21.7% decline in exports to the US. Imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year, the highest growth since July of the previous year, indicating a recovery in demand [2] Industry Dynamics - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 2.9%, marking its first decline this week. The US plans to impose tariffs on imported drugs, which negatively impacted companies with overseas expectations. However, the short-term impact on Chinese pharmaceutical companies is limited as their sales are primarily domestic [3] - The performance of the renewable energy and public utility sectors in Hong Kong was mixed, with the photovoltaic sector remaining weak while the wind power sector saw slight increases. Utility companies received support due to their stable business models [3] Industry Strategy - As of July 31, the environmental, photovoltaic, wind power, natural gas, power equipment, and Hong Kong public utility sectors outperformed the market by an average of 1.0%, 2.2%, 0.2%, 17.0%, and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. In contrast, the thermal power, nuclear power, and water supply sectors lagged behind by an average of 0.6%, 6.1%, and 0.5 percentage points [4] Power Generation - The thermal power sector is expected to be impacted by rising coal prices, with July coal prices showing a narrowing year-on-year decline due to seasonal demand increases [5] Power Equipment - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of CNY 1.2 trillion and an expected capacity of 60-70 GW, is anticipated to significantly increase the national hydropower capacity. However, the long construction period may limit short-term profits for equipment manufacturers [6] Photovoltaic Sector - As of July 30, the average price of polysilicon rose by 13.3% year-on-year, while the average price of photovoltaic modules fell by 22.4%. The market is experiencing a divergence between capital market expectations and actual demand in the physical market [7] Stock Recommendations - Harbin Electric (1133 HK) is expected to benefit from the Yarlung Tsangpo project, with a projected 95.0% year-on-year increase in net profit for H1 2025 [8] - Towngas Smart Energy (1083 HK) anticipates moderate growth in natural gas sales, with a projected dividend yield of 4.8% for FY25 [8] - Cheung Kong Infrastructure (1038 HK) operates in stable public utility sectors and is also expected to have a dividend yield of 4.8% for FY25 [8] Pharmaceutical Sector - The healthcare sector has seen significant stock performance, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 22.8% in July, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by nearly 20 percentage points. This is attributed to supportive policies for innovative drugs and successful overseas collaborations [10] - The government plans to establish a new directory for innovative drugs and support the use of medical insurance data for drug development, which is expected to enhance the sales of high-priced innovative drugs [11] - The upcoming drug procurement policies are expected to be more moderate, allowing for better quality assurance in the procurement process [12]