苯乙烯偏空因素主导

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report In the context of the decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, the cost support for styrene weakens. Meanwhile, the supply pressure of styrene both at home and abroad increases, while downstream demand is mediocre and even shows a slight contraction, leading to the accumulation of styrene port and factory inventories. It is expected that the domestic styrene futures 2509 contract may maintain a weak oscillatory trend in the future [3][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost Support Weakening - The main raw materials of styrene are pure benzene and ethylene, and crude oil price fluctuations directly affect styrene production costs. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the cumulative increase from April to August reached 1.919 million barrels per day, leading to a weak downward trend in crude oil futures prices and weakening styrene cost support [3]. - With the weakening of the previous macro - sentiment drive, the oil market is temporarily dominated by the supply - strengthening logic, and it is expected that the domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a weak oscillatory trend in the future [4]. Supply Pressure Rebound - As of the week of August 6, the domestic styrene plant capacity utilization rate was 78.92%, a slight increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous week; the overall production was 361,500 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons from the previous week, with an increase of only 0.11% [4]. - As of the end of July, the total domestic styrene production capacity was 21.792 million tons. In August, the styrene plants of Hebei Xuyang and Jinxi Petrochemical resumed operation, and there were few planned maintenance, so the overall domestic styrene maintenance loss continued to decline. If there are no sudden styrene plant maintenance situations, the domestic styrene production is expected to increase to about 1.63 million tons. In addition, multiple sets of pure benzene and styrene - related plants are expected to be put into production in August, and the domestic styrene supply is expected to remain at a high level [5]. Inventory Overall Upturn - In July, the overall demand of the three major downstream sectors of domestic styrene decreased, with a month - on - month decrease of 25,200 tons. In June, China's styrene imports were 21,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.78% and a year - on - year increase of 44.91% [5]. - As of the end of July, the total sample inventory of Jiangsu styrene ports in China reached 164,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,200 tons. As of July 31, the sample inventory of styrene plants was 217,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,400 tons, an increase of 8.70% [6].