黑色建材日报：供应消息扰动，黑色震荡反复-20250808

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Neutral [3] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [3] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [5] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Supply news has caused fluctuations in the black market, with glass and soda ash showing inventory accumulation and double silicon having high production willingness [1][4] - In the long - term, glass supply and demand remain relatively loose, and soda ash may face increasing inventory pressure [1][2] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have high supply and demand levels, but their prices are affected by multiple factors [4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the glass futures market had narrow - range fluctuations. The opening rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, a 0.34% increase from the previous period, and the manufacturer inventory was 61.847 million heavy boxes, a 2.348 million heavy - box increase [1] - Supply and Demand Logic: There is no policy - based contraction in glass supply, and real - estate has dragged down the rigid demand. Speculative demand has increased, and the factory inventory has slightly accumulated, being at a high level. In the long - term, supply and demand are loose [1] - Strategy: Expect a sideways movement [3] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market trended weakly. The capacity utilization rate was 85.42%, a 5.15% increase from the previous period, production was 744,700 tons, a 44,900 - ton increase, and inventory was 1.8651 million tons, a 69,300 - ton increase [1] - Supply and Demand Logic: Soda ash production is at a high level. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is relatively restricted, but it may further increase in the future. The photovoltaic industry has a production - cut expectation, so soda ash consumption may weaken, and inventory pressure will rise [1][2] - Strategy: Expect a weakly sideways movement [3] Silicomanganese - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market trended weakly. The downstream procurement was normal, with limited price - pressing. The northern market price was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton, and the southern market price was around 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton [4] - Supply and Demand Logic: Recently, the enthusiasm for silicomanganese production has been high, with both supply and demand at high levels. The manufacturer inventory has decreased significantly compared to the previous period and is at a medium level in recent years. The Australian manganese ore shipment has basically recovered, and after the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased [4] - Strategy: Bearish [5] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the increase in ferrosilicon futures declined. The market sentiment worsened, but the spot price remained stable. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,400 - 5,500 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton [4] - Supply and Demand Logic: Ferrosilicon production is gradually recovering, and the apparent demand is decreasing. Enterprises have made profits, and demand remains resilient. The factory inventory is at a medium - high level. In the long - term, ferrosilicon capacity is relatively loose [4] - Strategy: Bearish [5]