国投期货综合晨报-20250808

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market may shift to a weaker trend dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals, with geopolitical risk premiums significantly reduced [2]. - For precious metals, maintain a "buy - on - dips" strategy during the oscillation period and be cautious when prices are high [3]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and policy impacts, such as holding previous short positions for copper, waiting for short - selling opportunities for zinc, etc. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices declined. After the US announced a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil (to be implemented in 21 days), the supply risk of Russian oil weakened due to positive signals from US - Russia talks. The post - peak - season supply - demand outlook is loose, and the market may turn pessimistic [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: SC continued to fall, and fuel - related futures followed the downward trend. The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals in August, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, while high - sulfur resources are relatively supported [22]. - Natural Gas: No relevant content provided. - Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): No relevant content provided. - Coal: For coke and coking coal, the prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with high volatility in the short term. Coke is bullish in the short term, while coking coal should be cautiously chased up [17][18]. Base Metals - Copper: Overnight copper prices dropped, and the market mainly tracks macro - economic indicators. Hold previous short positions [4]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum slightly declined overnight. The apparent consumption is in the off - season, but the aluminum rod production has rebounded. It will oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - Zinc: The expiration of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The fundamentals are strong overseas and weak domestically. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound. Actively enter short positions [10]. - Tin: Overnight tin prices oscillated and closed higher. It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [11]. - Lead: The supply of refined lead has regional differences. It is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to go long on dips [9]. Precious Metals - Gold & Silver: Overnight precious metals oscillated strongly. Factors such as the US tariff, economic outlook concerns, and interest - rate cut expectations pushed up the gold price. Maintain a "buy - on - dips" strategy [3]. Chemical Commodities - Carbonate Lithium: The futures price of carbonate lithium rebounded with increased volume. After the price rebound, look for high - level short - selling positions [12]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures slightly rose. The supply pressure remains, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [13]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures slightly declined. It is expected to oscillate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Urea: After the policy became clear, the urea market declined. The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [24]. - Methanol: In the short term, the methanol market is weak, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory. In the long term, pay attention to the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [25]. - Pure Benzene: The pure benzene futures price is weak. There is an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, and it is advisable to conduct monthly - spread trading [26]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, while caustic soda is under pressure in the long term [27]. - PX & PTA: Affected by weak oil prices, PX and PTA prices declined. Pay attention to the possible valuation repair of PTA [28]. - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol price oscillated and declined due to port inventory pressure [29]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips: Consider a long - position strategy for short - fiber in the medium term, while the long - term over - capacity of bottle - grade chips restricts the repair of processing margins [30]. Building Materials - Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil: Night - session steel prices declined. Pay attention to the subsequent production - restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places, and the overall market sentiment is cautious [15]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with attention to policy - driven production - restriction progress [16]. Agricultural Commodities - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The US soybean may have an early - harvest expectation. Before the tariff issue is clear, the soybean meal market will oscillate [34]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The price of soybean oil and palm oil is expected to oscillate. Maintain a "buy - on - dips" strategy [35]. - Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil: Rapeseed oil maintains a neutral view, while rapeseed meal futures may oscillate weakly [36]. - Soybean No.1: The soybean No.1 price rebounded from a low level. Pay attention to the weather in domestic production areas and policy guidance [37]. - Corn: The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom. Pay attention to the supply in the circulation stage [38]. - Live Pigs: The live - pig futures price in the near - term is not optimistic, and pay attention to the capacity - reduction logic in the far - term [39]. - Eggs: Adopt a reverse - spread strategy on the futures market. The price in the first half of next year is more supported [40]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton has stabilized. Temporarily wait and see or conduct intraday trading [41]. - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp futures slightly rose. Temporarily wait and see [42]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Shipping companies are accelerating price cuts. The freight rate is expected to decline rapidly, and maintain a bearish view [21]. Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The stock index futures closed down. Maintain an increased allocation to technology - growth and low - level consumer sectors [43]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The treasury bond futures oscillated. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [44].