化工日报：PTA现货加工费低位，聚酯负荷坚挺-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end oil market will shift from strong to weak in the second half of the year, unless the US increases sanctions on Russia. PX supply is expected to increase, and the balance sheet will change from de - stocking to balance. PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The polyester load is currently firm, but the terminal demand has not improved significantly and awaits the arrival of the seasonal peak season [2][3] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, pay attention to the cost - end crude oil and macro - sentiment changes. Consider shorting the PTA processing fee at high levels and going long on the PR processing fee at low levels. Also, conduct reverse arbitrage on PTA2509 - 2601 and PF2509 - 2511 [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 20 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +1 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 137 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +35 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 375 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN was 263 US dollars/ton (with a month - on - month change of +7.50 US dollars/ton) the day before last. The PTA spot processing fee is 137 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +35 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 375 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/ton) [2] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Not elaborated in the text Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The domestic PX load will gradually recover, and with the commissioning of MX, the supply is abundant. The PTA load situation in China, South Korea, and Taiwan is presented in relevant figures, but specific data are not described in the text [2][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts will lead to abundant liquid supply [2] Downstream Polyester Load - As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland region is around 88.8%. The polyester start - up rate is 88.1% (with a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%). The terminal weaving concentrated on raw - material replenishment in late July, and the filament inventory pressure decreased significantly. The filament and staple - fiber loads rebounded slightly, and the polyester load remains firm in the short term [1][3] PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 91 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month increase of 12 yuan/ton). The PF demand - side orders are weak, the inventory remains high, and the willingness to hold positions is low under the drag of downstream production cuts [3] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 410 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 32 yuan/ton). After the implementation of the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers, it is expected that the load will remain stable in the short term, and the bottle - chip spot processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for oscillation after repair [3]