集运日报：现货运价持续回落悲观情绪加强主力合约偏弱震荡近期波动较大不建议继续加仓设置好止损-20250808

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 8, 2025 [1] - Report type: Container shipping daily report - Research group: Shipping research group Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and pessimistic sentiment is intensifying. The main contract is fluctuating weakly, with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to add positions, and stop - losses should be set [2] - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5] Group 4: Freight Rate Index August 4 - Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes is 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period [3] - SCFIS for US - West routes is 1130.12 points, down 12.0% from the previous period [3] August 1 - Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) is 1087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period [3] - NCFI (European routes) is 1372.67 points, down 3.53% from the previous period [3] - NCFI (US - West routes) is 1114.45 points, down 0.54% from the previous period [3] - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price is 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period [3] - SCFI European line price is 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86% from the previous period [3] - SCFI US - West routes is 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% from the previous period [3] - China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) is 1232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [3] - CCFI (European routes) is 1789.50 points, up 0.1% from the previous period [3] - CCFI (US - West routes) is 876.57 points, down 0.5% from the previous period [3] Group 5: PMI Data Eurozone (July) - Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7, and the previous value was 49.5 [3] - Services PMI preliminary value is 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7, and the previous value was 50.5 [3] - Composite PMI preliminary value is 51, higher than the expected 50.8, and the previous value was 50.6 [3] - SENTIX investor confidence index jumps to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [3] China (July) - Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level has declined [4] US (July) - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 49.5, expected 52.7, and the previous value was 52.9 [4] - S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value is 55.2, expected 53, and the previous value was 52.9 [4] - Markit Composite PMI preliminary value is 54.6, a new high since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8, and the previous value was 52.9 [4] Group 6: Market News and Strategy Market News - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, further hitting re - export trade. The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1, and the spot market price range is set, with some small price increases to test the market [5] - On August 6 (local time), a Palestinian - occupied territory humanitarian aid team composed of the United Nations and non - government organizations called on Israel to revoke the requirement for non - government organizations to submit sensitive personal information of Palestinian employees [6] - On August 6, US President Trump said that the US will impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and no fees will be charged if manufactured in the US [6] Short - term Strategy - The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers are advised to lightly test long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already out of a profit space of more than 300). For the EC2512 contract, it is advised to lightly test short positions and set a stop - profit [5] Arbitrage Strategy - Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, the structure is mainly in a positive spread. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt [5] Long - term Strategy - It is advised to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the follow - up situation [5] Group 7: Contract Information - On August 7, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.4, with a decline of 0.98%, a trading volume of 2.61 million lots, and an open interest of 5.36 million lots, a decrease of 765 lots from the previous day [5] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]