贵金属月报（黄金与白银）：美国就业数据疲软推升降息预期，央行持续购金支撑贵金属价格-20250808

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The weak US employment data has boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the continuous gold - buying by central banks supports the prices of precious metals. The prices of precious metals are likely to rise and investors are advised to buy on dips, while being vigilant about the potential rebound of US consumer - end inflation caused by additional tariffs [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data in the US - Employment: The number of non - farm payrolls in July dropped to 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data for May - June was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, higher than the previous value. The average hourly wage rate in July was 3.9%, higher than expected and the previous value [4][43]. - Inflation: In June, the CPI and core CPI annual rates were 2.7% and 2.9% respectively, higher than expected and the previous value. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations in July were 4.4% and 3.6% respectively, lower than expected and the previous value [4][13]. - Manufacturing and Services: The ISM manufacturing PMI in July was 48, lower than expected and the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, lower than the previous value and expected [34]. - Housing: The 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates at the end of July decreased to 5.85% and 6.72% respectively. The total sales volume of new and existing homes in June decreased month - on - month [38][41]. - Retail and Consumption: The retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, higher than the previous value and expected. The personal consumption expenditure month - on - month rate in June was flat with expectations but higher than the previous value [50][57]. - Durable Goods: The new orders for durable goods month - on - month rate in June was - 9.3%, higher than expected but lower than the previous value [53]. - Debt and Finance: The US outstanding public debt increased by $61.2 billion compared with last month. The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was about $84.4 billion. The OFR financial stress index decreased [21][22][27]. 3.2 Central Bank Policies in Other Countries - European Central Bank: The eurozone's July CPI initial value increased by 2% year - on - year, and the GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.1% quarter - on - quarter, getting out of the technical recession. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates at most once in the second half of the year. The ECB is reducing its balance sheet [61][63]. - Bank of England: The UK's CPI and core CPI annual rates in June were 3.6% and 3.7% respectively, higher than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut interest rates only once before the end of 2025 [66]. - Bank of Japan: The Bank of Japan raised its core inflation forecast for 2025 to 2.7% and will reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The expectation of interest rate hikes before the end of 2025 has cooled [69]. 3.3 Precious Metals Market - Geopolitical and Central Bank Buying: The global geopolitical risk index decreased in July, but uncertainties remain. The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month [72][75]. - ETF and Futures Positions: The US gold ETF volatility index increased. The non - commercial long - short position ratio of COMEX gold futures increased, while that of COMEX silver futures decreased [77][82][85]. - Inventory: The gold inventories in SHFE and COMEX increased, while the silver inventories in SHFE decreased and those in SGE and COMEX increased [88]. - Price Ratios: The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) is at a relatively high level, and the "gold - oil ratio" and "gold - copper ratio" are also high. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities of the "gold - silver ratio" and long - position opportunities of the "gold - oil ratio" and "gold - copper ratio" [91][94].