Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a weak and downward trend, with a focus on macro - policies and downstream demand, and is likely to have an oscillatory consolidation operation [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be high in the short - term, with an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up, as well as macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Industry Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a production resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the shutdown [3] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down around mid - January, and a few will shut down after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline oscillatively, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month, and the demand for bauxite will grow. Xinjiang Zhonghe's 2.4 million - ton alumina project is expected to be completed and put into production in the first half of 2026 [3] - From late June to July, the bauxite shipments from Guinea decreased due to the rainy season. The total bauxite imports from Guinea to China are expected to decline starting in August, and the increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited [3] - The weekly starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different sub - industries have different trends: primary aluminum alloy continues to recover but with cautious production scheduling; aluminum cable starting rate remains stable at 61.8% and is expected to rise slightly in mid - August; aluminum profile starting rate decreased slightly to 49.5%; aluminum foil starting rate decreased slightly to 68.4% and is expected to continue to shrink; the starting rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises remains stable at 53.1% but faces downward pressure [3] - As of August 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 564,000 tons, unchanged from Monday and an increase of 20,000 tons from last Thursday. Current off - season inventory accumulation and demand pressure limit the upward space [3][4]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250808
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-08-08 08:47