Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current price of logs is within a reasonable valuation range. Although the price fluctuates around the warehouse - receipt cost, from a trading perspective, the upward risk - return ratio is better than the downward one [3]. - The data of the 07 contract's delivery situation provides important references for future delivery distribution, including the quantity of delivery items, the proportion of the lowest - cost warehouse receipts, and the approximate range of the average warehouse - receipt cost [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Log Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 to prevent inventory losses [2]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 to lock in procurement costs [2]. Core Contradiction - The 09 contract is three weeks away from delivery. The 07 contract had a total of 1281 hands delivered, with 63% by truck - board delivery (20% in Lanshan, 55% in Taicang, 24% in Chongqing) and 37% by warehouse - receipt delivery (82% in Lanshan, 18% in Taicang, 0% in Chongqing) [3]. - The spot price and the far - end CFR quote have increased, indicating a rise in delivery costs [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - Likely Positive Factors: Importers are willing to support prices due to continuous import losses, import costs are rising, the overall sentiment of commodities is improving, and there is an impact from capital [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: The peak season is not prosperous, and the shipping volume from foreign suppliers is continuously increasing [6]. Spot and Basis - The report provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on August 8, 2025, and calculates the converted basis [4][7]. Log Data Overview - Supply: The radiation - pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [8]. - Inventory: As of August 1, 2025, the total port inventory in China was 3.17 million m³, unchanged from the previous period but a 4.5% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million m³, an increase of 20,000 m³ from the previous period and a 10.5% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 0.96 million m³, a decrease of 56,400 m³ from the previous period but an 11.6% increase year - on - year [8]. - Demand: As of August 1, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 64,200 m³, an increase of 100 m³ from the previous period and a 33.2% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 35,700 m³, an increase of 1,800 m³ from the previous period and a 55.9% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,200 m³, a decrease of 1,400 m³ from the previous period but a 19.0% increase year - on - year [8]. - Profit: As of August 8, 2025, the import profit of radiation pine was - 96 yuan/m³, a decrease of 12 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The import profit of spruce was - 87 yuan/m³, an increase of 19 yuan/m³ from the previous period [8]. - Outer - Market Quote: The CFR quote on August 8, 2025, was 116 US dollars/JASm³, an increase of 2 US dollars from the previous period but a 1.7% decrease year - on - year [8].
持仓的拉扯与价格的震荡
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-08 08:42