原油周报：美国就业数据爆冷叠加OPEC+增产打压油价-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a long - term bearish view on oil prices from the perspectives of fundamentals, OPEC+ industry policies, and the sudden cooling of the US employment market. However, the market may be overly optimistic about the risk of Russian oil disruptions. Short - term oil prices may be slightly undervalued, but it still depends on event developments [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints - Last week's monthly report view: In August, attention should be paid to the trend of diesel cracking. In the case of poor gasoline consumption, diesel cracking led the refinery's refining economy. If diesel cracking continues to weaken, it will damage the refinery's operating rate, making it difficult for the crude oil consumption side to resist the increasing supply pressure, putting pressure on oil prices in August [6]. - This week's trend analysis: Oil prices continued to decline this week. With the upcoming meeting between the US and Russian presidents and the potential US - Russia - Ukraine talks, concerns about Russian oil disruptions have eased, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase has been magnified as crude oil gradually moves out of the traditional consumption peak season [6]. - Specific influencing factors: Western near - month spreads are continuously weakening; OPEC+ is increasing production steadily and has further room for production increase; the situation of negotiating while imposing sanctions is more likely, and attention should be paid to the negotiation progress; the US employment data has a significant negative impact, triggering a black - swan event and increasing the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, which is bearish for the market [6]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights - Western near - month spreads: WTI and Brent spreads in the Western market are continuously weakening, indicating a slowdown in immediate supply and demand. The spreads in the Eastern market are also at a relatively low level after the contract roll - over, but Saudi Arabia's increase in the official selling price in Asia is expected to drive a slight upward movement in the spreads [10]. - Oil price decline and cracking: As oil prices have weakened recently, cracking in the Western market has stabilized, while the Eastern market remains weak [12]. - Global spot cracking: Gasoline cracking has been boosted by the decline in the cost side, but the overall performance this year is mediocre, and the rebound space is limited. Diesel cracking has generally fluctuated and has not expanded with the decline in the cost side. Asian cracking is weak mainly due to the limited rebound in gasoline cracking and the continuous decline in diesel cracking [14]. - Global refining economy: The recent decline in refining economy is synchronized with the decline in diesel cracking. The refining economy in Asia is relatively worse and has even entered a loss - making state, which is in line with the relatively weak Asian cracking. A decline in refining economy is generally expected to affect the future refinery operating rate, i.e., crude oil demand [17]. - Global diesel inventory: The diesel inventories of the world's major consumer countries, the US and China, are at multi - year lows. The diesel inventory in Northwest European ports is relatively neutral, and the middle - distillate inventory in Singapore has been declining and is at a low level. The low diesel inventory is mainly due to raw material issues, such as the Western rejection of Russian Urals crude oil and Russian refined products, and OPEC+ Middle Eastern countries' preference for producing higher - priced light crude oil during the additional voluntary production cuts [20]. - US gasoline demand: This year, the demand data during the US driving peak season has been dismal. The four - week smoothed gasoline implied demand has been below the 9 million barrels per day mark for four consecutive weeks. The weak demand is consistent with the weak gasoline cracking. The relatively low gasoline price this year has not stimulated the demand, which may reflect that Americans are choosing shorter - distance self - driving trips and reducing travel budgets, especially among low - income groups [23]. - OPEC+ production increase: Except for Kazakhstan, which has been over - producing sustainably, the other seven countries have well - implemented the production plan by June. OPEC+ policy has shifted from price protection to market - share protection. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and end the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cuts by the end of September, one year earlier than the original plan. OPEC+ still has room to further reduce production cuts, which will imbalance the market supply - demand gap as the crude oil demand gradually declines from the traditional peak season [24][25]. - Russian oil disruptions: Recent statements by US and Russian officials have led the market to believe that Russian oil disruptions have eased, and oil prices have declined after giving up the risk premium. However, it is more likely that the US will promote the Russia - Ukraine peace talks while imposing sanctions on Russia. Attention should be paid to the details of Trump's sanctions on August 8 and the negotiation process. Unless a large amount of Russian oil is trapped in Russia and unable to be exported, the impact of changes in oil trade flows on the global supply - demand pattern is limited. If the Russia - Ukraine peace talks are successful and Russian oil returns to the Western market, it will be bearish for the market [29]. - US employment data: The US non - farm payrolls data has been significantly revised downward, triggering a black - swan event. This has led to an increase in the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the market's basic expectation for the US economy has shifted back to stagflation. The credibility of future economic data may be questioned, which will lead to irrational interpretations [30]. 3.3 Price, Spread, and Cracking - Crude oil futures and spot trends: The report presents various price trends of crude oil futures and spot, including OPEC basket price, Cushing WTI, European Brent, Dubai crude, etc. [38]. - Crude oil positions: It shows the net long positions of Brent and WTI futures and options, as well as the relationship between prices and the net long - position ratios of different types of traders [40][43]. - Crude oil futures structure and spreads: It includes the futures structure of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC, as well as month - on - month spreads such as M1 - M2, M1 - M3, etc. [46][49]. - Cross - market futures and spot spreads: Presents cross - market spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, etc., in both futures and spot markets [52][55]. - Saudi OSP: Saudi Arabia has adjusted the official selling prices for different regions in September. It has increased the premiums for Asia and the Americas and decreased the premiums for Europe [26]. - Refined product prices and cracking: It shows the prices and cracking spreads of refined products in futures and spot markets, including gasoline, diesel, and other products in different regions such as the US, Europe, and Asia [67][72]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - Global crude oil supply: It includes the total supply of global, non - OPEC+, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil, as well as the supply from major non - OPEC countries such as the US, the former Soviet Union region, China, and Brazil [88][91]. - Global crude oil demand: It includes the total demand of OECD, non - OECD, and global crude oil, as well as the demand from major countries such as the US, China, India, and Brazil [112][118]. - Crude oil inventory: It shows the inventory data of different regions, including the US, OECD, Europe, Japan, etc., as well as the inventory of different types of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel [121][128]. - EIA balance sheet: The EIA balance sheet shows that the global crude oil supply has exceeded demand from 2025Q1 to 2026Q2, and the surplus is gradually increasing [142]. 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - EIA weekly report main data: It includes data on crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude oil chain inventory [157]. - Supply: It shows the production data of various refined products such as gasoline, distillate oil, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, and propane - propylene [160][163]. - Refining demand: It includes data on refinery crude oil input, refinery operating rate, and refinery refining capacity [166]. - Terminal apparent demand: The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand data for total demand, gasoline, distillate oil, jet fuel, etc. are presented [169]. - Inventory: It includes data on crude oil inventory (commercial crude oil inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, etc.) and refined product inventory (gasoline, distillate oil, jet fuel, etc.) [175][178]. - Import and export: It shows data on crude oil imports, exports, net imports, and refined product net exports [184]. - Other data: It also includes data on domestic subway passenger volume, traffic delay and congestion index, flight numbers in China, PMI of Western and other major countries, Fed's monetary policy, interest rate market, and related energy prices [204][213][223].