多元资产月报（2025年8月）：市场风险偏好波动，关注中报业绩成色-20250808

Group 1: Macroeconomic Background - The domestic economy is showing stable growth with a GDP increase of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by a 6.4% rise in industrial production and a 5.9% increase in the service sector [10][11] - Investment growth remains stable, with fixed asset investment rising by 2.8% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment increasing by 7.5%, accounting for 25.2% of total fixed asset investment [10][11] - Consumer spending is robust, contributing 52% to economic growth, with retail sales increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [10][12] Group 2: Market Performance - In July, the A-share market experienced a rise due to increased market sentiment and capital inflows, while the bond market showed fluctuations in yields driven by a loose liquidity environment [2][6] - The performance of major asset classes in July indicated a mixed trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index showing positive returns, while bond yields initially rose before stabilizing [3][4] - The stock market is expected to face a high-level consolidation phase in the short term due to profit-taking, despite structural opportunities in technology growth and anti-involution policy sectors [2][6] Group 3: External Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market shows signs of risk, with a notable decline in non-farm payrolls and rising unemployment claims, which may impact economic expectations [6] - The U.S. inflationary pressures are anticipated to persist, potentially affecting consumer spending and overall market sentiment [6] - The outlook for U.S. assets remains cautious, with the dollar index expected to shift from a downward trend to a more volatile range, influenced by economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals [6][8]