沥青周报：社库不降反增，走势依然偏弱-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Last week's view: Asphalt demand is mainly for actual needs, and due to capital constraints, it is difficult to have better - than - expected performance. Although the refinery inventory is at a low level, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventory may restrict the overall upside space. It is expected that the overall trend of asphalt will be volatile and weakly follow the cost side [7]. - This week's trend analysis: This week, asphalt followed the decline of the cost - side crude oil. Combining with last week's market, it generally showed weak performance in rising and smooth decline [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased, and refinery inventory also decreased slightly. However, the social inventory, which had originally been slow to destock, increased instead. After entering the peak season, the slow destocking speed of social inventory will restrict the upside space of asphalt prices [7]. - This week's view: Asphalt demand is still mainly for actual needs. Affected by rainy weather and capital constraints, it is difficult to have better - than - expected performance. Although the refinery inventory is at a low level, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventory may continue to restrict the upside space. It is expected that the overall trend of asphalt will be volatile and weakly follow the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 周度观点 (Weekly View) - Last week's view: Asphalt is mainly for actual needs, and capital constraints limit its performance. Low refinery inventory but slow social - inventory destocking restricts upside space. Expected to be volatile and follow the cost side weakly [7]. - This week's analysis: Followed the decline of crude oil, with weak rising and smooth falling performance [7]. - This week's data: Refinery supply decreased, demand increased, refinery inventory dropped slightly, but social inventory rose. Slow social - inventory destocking restricts price upside [7]. - This week's view: Affected by weather and capital, asphalt is for actual needs. Low refinery inventory and slow social - inventory destocking may restrict upside. Expected to be volatile and follow the cost side weakly [7]. 3.2 02 数据概览 (Data Overview) 3.2.1 沥青期货走势、月差、基差 (Asphalt Futures Trend, Monthly Spread, and Basis) - Data on asphalt futures main contract price, monthly spread (BU9 - BU12), and basis in East China and Shandong regions are presented in graphical form, with data sources from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11] 3.2.2 沥青供应 (Asphalt Supply) - Graphs show asphalt plant operating rate, weekly production, refinery asphalt profit, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate. Data source is Steel Union Data [12][13][14] 3.2.3 沥青需求 (Asphalt Demand) - Graphs display asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and paver sales multiplied by apparent consumption. Data source is Steel Union Data [15][16][17] 3.2.4 沥青进出口 (Asphalt Import and Export) - Graphs show asphalt import and export volumes, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices. Data source is Steel Union Data [18][19][20] 3.2.5 沥青库存 (Asphalt Inventory) - Graphs present refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume. Data source is Steel Union Data [21][22][23] 3.2.6 山东沥青供需库 (Supply, Demand, and Inventory of Shandong Asphalt) - Graphs show the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of Shandong asphalt. Data source is Steel Union Data [24][25][26] 3.2.7 华东沥青供需库 (Supply, Demand, and Inventory of East China Asphalt) - Graphs show the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of East China asphalt. Data source is Steel Union Data [27][28][29] 3.2.8 华南沥青供需库 (Supply, Demand, and Inventory of South China Asphalt) - Graphs show the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of South China asphalt. Data source is Steel Union Data [30][31][32] 3.2.9 检修信息 (Maintenance Information) - Information on production enterprises' maintenance of atmospheric - vacuum distillation units is provided, including enterprise names, maintenance units, production capacities, maintenance start times, and end times. The total annual production capacity of the maintenance units is 1836 tons/year, and the maintenance loss is 616,000 tons [33]