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光伏反内卷系列报告:政策逐步落地,光伏反内卷进入新阶段
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-08 09:45

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the photovoltaic industry, particularly focusing on the benefits from the anti-involution policies and the expected price increases across the supply chain [3][19][22]. Core Insights - The current round of anti-involution is fundamentally different from previous self-regulatory efforts, with significant policy and regulatory measures being implemented since the sixth Central Financial Committee meeting [3][18]. - The anti-involution has catalyzed positive changes in the industry, leading to substantial price increases in the photovoltaic supply chain, particularly in polysilicon, which has seen prices rise above 40,000 yuan per ton [3][14]. - The feasibility of price transmission from polysilicon to downstream components is supported by the involvement of state-owned energy enterprises, which are expected to resist low-price competition [3][38]. - Polysilicon is identified as the key focus for the anti-involution efforts, with policies aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity and promoting industry consolidation [3][23]. - The supply side has initiated changes, while the demand side is seen as the critical area for breakthroughs, with new policies expected to stimulate demand in the photovoltaic market [3][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of Anti-Involution Market - The report reviews the developments in the photovoltaic market since the implementation of anti-involution policies, highlighting the significant price increases in polysilicon and other components [3][12][14]. 2. Positive Changes from Anti-Involution Expectations - The report notes that the anti-involution expectations have led to a positive market response, with polysilicon futures prices rising significantly and aligning closely with the prices of photovoltaic materials [11][12]. 3. Policy Implementation Phase with Focus on Polysilicon - The report emphasizes that the implementation of policies targeting polysilicon production is crucial for the success of the anti-involution strategy, with a focus on reducing outdated capacity and enhancing industry standards [3][22][29]. 4. Indicators of Anti-Involution Effects: Component Prices - The report identifies the rising prices of photovoltaic components as a key indicator of the success of the anti-involution measures, with expectations for further price increases as the supply chain adjusts [3][14][38]. 5. Supply-Side Anti-Involution and Demand-Side Efforts - The report discusses the need for coordinated efforts between supply-side adjustments and demand-side stimulation to ensure the sustainability of the photovoltaic market, particularly in light of new regulatory frameworks [3][45][42].