Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-08 09:50Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic urea market rose first and then declined this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong dropped to 1740 - 1780 yuan/ton by Thursday, with the average price down 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. - New plant overhauls have led to a slight decrease in domestic urea daily output. Next week, the probability of increased production is high as one shut - down enterprise will resume production and there are no planned plant shutdowns, barring short - term enterprise malfunctions. - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with only sporadic local demand. During the autumn fertilizer production stage, the compound fertilizer industry makes appropriate low - price purchases, but the demand for urea is relatively small as the start - up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increases slowly. - Although domestic urea demand is weak, lower prices have stimulated downstream low - price purchasing enthusiasm. The unexpectedly high Indian urea tender price has boosted market sentiment, and some plant overhauls have led to a slight decline in domestic urea enterprise inventories this week. However, considering limited short - term trading volume and weak domestic demand, enterprises may accumulate inventories again. - The report suggests trading the UR2509 contract in the 1700 - 1770 range [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Highlights - Strategy: Trade the UR2509 contract in the 1700 - 1770 range [6]. - Market review: The domestic urea market rose first and then declined. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong dropped to 1740 - 1780 yuan/ton by Thursday, with the average price down 5 yuan/ton week - on - week [7]. - Outlook: Output may increase next week, demand is weak, but lower prices and the Indian tender have led to a slight inventory decline this week, and inventories may accumulate again [7]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price movement: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, up 1.11% week - on - week [10]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of August 8, the UR 9 - 1 spread was - 23 [13]. - Position analysis: No specific content on position analysis is summarized other than the topic. - Warehouse receipts: As of August 7, there were 3373 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, unchanged from last week [21]. 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 7, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1780 yuan/ton, unchanged [26]. - Overseas price: As of August 7, the FOB China price of urea was 410 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - Basis: As of August 7, the urea basis was 43 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.4. Upstream - Coal and natural gas prices: As of August 6, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of August 7, the NYMEX natural gas closed at 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. 3.5. Industry - Capacity utilization and output: As of August 7, China's urea production was 132.85 million tons, down 2.63 million tons from the previous period, a 1.94% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 81.98%, down 1.62% from the previous period [41]. - Inventory: As of August 7, the port sample inventory was 48.3 million tons, down 1 million tons, a 2.03% week - on - week decrease. As of August 6, the total enterprise inventory was 88.76 million tons, down 2.97 million tons, a 3.24% week - on - week decrease [44]. - Export: In June 2025, urea exports were 66,240.55 tons, up 2618.13% month - on - month; the export average price was 366.28 US dollars/ton, up 4662.05% month - on - month [47]. 3.6. Downstream - Compound fertilizer and melamine start - up rates: As of August 7, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 41.5%, up 2.82 percentage points week - on - week. The melamine capacity utilization rate was 63.50% on average this week, down 1.70 percentage points from last week [50].