瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250808

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2420 in the short term [7] - The overall domestic methanol market is boosted by the macro - environment, but the port methanol market has limited upward space due to high import expectations. The port market shows an oscillating and weakening trend, while the inland market rises [8] - Recently, the output of the restored methanol production capacity is less than the loss of the overhauled and reduced - production capacity, leading to a slight decrease in the overall output [8] - The inventory of inland enterprises decreases this week, while the port inventory accumulates significantly. The olefin industry's starting rate rises slightly this week but is expected to decline next week [8] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2350 - 2420 range [7] - Market trend: The average price of the domestic port methanol market drops this week, with an oscillating and weakening trend. The inland market rises, with the price in the Ordos northern line ranging from 2065 - 2110 yuan/ton and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranging from 2320 - 2345 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: The overall methanol output decreases slightly. Inland enterprise inventory decreases, and port inventory accumulates. The olefin industry's starting rate rises slightly this week but may decline next week [8] 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillates and closes down this week, with a decline of 0.42% [13] - Inter - period spread: As of August 8, the MA 9 - 1 spread is - 92 [17] - Position analysis: Not provided in the content - Warehouse receipts: As of August 7, the Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts are 8688, an increase of 142 compared with last week [25] 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 8, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area is 2382.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia is 2105 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 277.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with last week [31] - Foreign price: As of August 7, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port is 270 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port is 63 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton compared with last week [37] - Basis: As of August 8, the Zhengzhou methanol basis is - 0.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week [41] 3.4. Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of August 6, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal is 670 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of August 7, the NYMEX natural gas closes at 3.08 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.02 dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [44] - Industry: As of August 7, China's methanol output is 1845225 tons, a decrease of 67900 tons compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a decrease of 3.55% month - on - month [50] - Inventory: As of August 6, the total port inventory is 92.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises is 29.37 tons, a decrease of 3.08 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 9.50% month - on - month; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 24.08 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 4.37% month - on - month [53] - Import: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 5.58% compared with last week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume is 537.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.68%. As of August 7, the methanol import profit is 41.04 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.4 yuan/ton compared with last week [56] - Downstream: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 85.11%, an increase of 1.5% month - on - month. As of August 8, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared with last week [59][62] 3.5. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content