聚氯乙烯市场周报-20250808

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC futures oscillated within a range this week due to the game between weak supply - demand and favorable coal costs. As of August 8, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 4,993 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from last week's close [8]. - In August, after the new production capacity is put into operation, the operating load will gradually increase, and PVC supply is expected to show an upward trend. Next week, the 900,000 - ton plant of Fujian Wanhua will operate at full capacity, and some maintenance plants will restart, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise month - on - month. Domestic downstream demand is in the off - season, with only rigid procurement. Although the Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December and the anti - dumping policy release is delayed, the rainy season still hinders the transmission of overseas demand [8]. - In terms of cost, next week, the supply and demand of domestic calcium carbide will tend to be loose, and the price may fall; the ethylene US dollar market has sufficient supply, and the price is expected to remain stable. Currently, the premium of the V2509 contract is not large, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 4,900 - 5,100 yuan in the short term; the V2601 contract still faces pressure in the future, and technically, attention should be paid to the support around 5,040 yuan [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The V2509 contract closed at 4,993 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from last week [8]. - Fundamentals: - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 2.62% week - on - week to 79.46% due to the restart of plants such as Zhongyan and Zhongtai [8]. - Demand: The downstream PVC operating rate increased by 0.8% week - on - week to 42.85%. Among them, the pipe operating rate decreased by 0.87% week - on - week to 32.09%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 0.09% week - on - week to 36.91% [8]. - Inventory: The PVC social inventory increased by 7.49% week - on - week to 776,300 tons [8]. - Cost: The average national cost of calcium carbide method increased by 138 yuan/ton to 4,977 yuan/ton due to the shortage of calcium carbide caused by power rationing; the average national cost of ethylene method decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 5,596 yuan/ton due to the stable CFR Northeast Asia price of ethylene and slight exchange - rate fluctuations [8]. - Profit: The profit of calcium carbide method decreased by 231 yuan/ton to - 252 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene method decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 489 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price and Warehouse Receipts: The V2509 contract oscillated within a range, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased week - on - week [9]. - Position and Spread: As the delivery month approaches, the position of the main 09 contract decreased this week, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated slightly [12]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot Price - Import and Export: The CFR China quotation was 700 US dollars (+0), and the Southeast Asian quotation was 680 US dollars (+0) [18]. - Spot Price - Overseas: The Indian quotation was 720 US dollars (+0) [23]. - Spot Price - Domestic Calcium Carbide and Ethylene Methods: The spot prices of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC in East China decreased slightly this week [26]. - Basis: The basis fluctuated slightly, and the futures market remained in a premium state [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Blue Coke and Calcium Carbide: The prices of blue coke and calcium carbide increased this week. The blue coke operating rate was 54.22%, and the calcium carbide operating rate was 62.55% [34][39]. - EDC and VCM: The CIF intermediate price of VCM was 520 US dollars/ton, and the international price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton [43]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply - Capacity and Output: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in July was 2.0046 million tons, a month - on - month increase [47]. - Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance: The PVC capacity utilization rate increased slightly this week [51]. - Demand - Downstream Operating Rate: The pipe operating rate was 32.09%, and the profile operating rate was 36.91% [54]. - Demand - PVC Floor Export: The export of PVC floor products decreased month - on - month in June [58]. - Import and Export: In June, imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [61]. - Inventory: The PVC social inventory continued to accumulate [66]. - Cost: The cost of calcium carbide method increased month - on - month this week, while the cost of ethylene method decreased month - on - month [70]. - Profit: The losses of calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened this week [76]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 29.19%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 14.44% [81].